Week Eight was another winning week for us, where we went 15-13. By virtue of the spreads, we managed to win with the Broncos, Chiefs, Colts, Raiders, Patriots, Steelers, and Cowboys.
Despite being 7-7 on spreads, we went 8-6 on the over/unders this week. For the third week in a row now, we had a winning week. For the season, we are 120-116 overall and positioned well to hit our mark, just as we did last season.
2020 Regular Season Record: 120-116 (50.8%)
A breakdown of Week 9 NFL picks
Here we take a look at all the main NFL Week 9 betting lines from the BetRivers Online Sportsbook. Got a minute? Check out a summary of Collin’s picks below. Got some more time? Read on for Collin’s in-depth analysis for his picks this week:
|Matchup/Line||Collin's Pick||Take With the Spread||Over/Under|
|Giants @ Washington Football Team -2.5 O/U: 42 ||Washington Football Team 23 Giants 17||Washington||Under|
|Broncos @ Falcons -3.5 O/U: 50||Falcons 24 Broncos 20||Falcon||Under|
|Panthers @ Chiefs -10.5 O/U: 52.5||Chiefs 34 Panthers 21||Chiefs||Over|
|Bears @ Titans -5.5 O/U: 46.5||Titans 26 Bears 22||Bears||Over|
|Ravens -2 @ Colts O/U: 47||Colts 23 Ravens 22||Colts||Under|
|Seahawks -3 @ Bills O/U: 55||Seahawks 31 Bills 26||Seahawks||Over|
|Texans -6.5 @ Jaguars O/U: 50.5||Texans 34 Jaguars 17||Texans||Over|
|Raiders @ Chargers -1 O/U: 52||Raiders 30 Chargers 27||Raiders||Over|
|Dolphins @ Cardinals -4 O/U: 48||Cardinals 26 Dolphins 23||Dolphins||Over|
|Steelers -13.5 @ Cowboys O/U: 41.5||Steelers 38 Cowboys 6||Steelers||Over|
|Saints @ Buccaneers -4 O/U: 51.5||Bucs 30 Saints 20||Bucs||Under|
|Patriots -7 @ Jets O/U: 42.5||Patriots 26 Jets 20||Jets||Over|
Giants @ Washington Football Team -2.5 O/U: 42
The Giants have been better than you may have noticed lately. Last week, the Giants came out with a solid first-half performance and shocked the world (for a half at least). Washington has a stout defensive front and a great pass rush. To me, the difference in the game will be three-fold.
First, I thought Washington should’ve won the first time around. The scoop and score doomed them in their first meeting with the Giants in New York. The second point is the Washington quarterback play. With a bye week and another week of first-team reps, the Washington passing game should be much better.
The last point is the Daniel Jones factor. In a game I expect will be tentative, Daniel Jones is capable of making incredible throws and equally awful throws. I think it’s more likely this game gets turned around by virtue of a Daniel Jones mistake and it’ll be too much for the Giants to overcome.
Washington Football Team 23 Giants 17
Broncos @ Falcons -3.5 O/U: 50
The Falcons have been playing much-improved football since a good portion of the defense returned a few weeks ago. The Broncos offense finally sprang to life late last week, thanks to the Chargers being the Chargers. The question this week is, how much do we trust either of these teams?
Regardless of how they’ve done it, the Falcons have actually been leading in quite a few games this season. Last week, the Falcons surprised a lot of people, myself included, beating the Panthers in bad weather. The Panthers are a balanced team and one that comps similarly to the Broncos.
Though you could be impressed by the Broncos after last week, it’s worth noting they were playing the Chargers and the late spurt from the offense can be more attributed to that. I like the Falcons at home in this one, but wouldn’t lean the way of a blowout.
Falcons 24 Broncos 20
Panthers @ Chiefs -10.5 O/U: 52.5
The Panthers are coming off a big letdown performance against the Falcons last Thursday. This week, they get the Chiefs, who are running as hot as any team in the league. It doesn’t really matter how good your team’s pass defense is, because Mahomes is essentially matchup proof. The Panthers will likely be getting Christian McCaffrey back this week.
It’s probably not going to make much of a difference, as the Chiefs match up very well with the Panthers, especially defensively. If the Chiefs stay in a positive game script, I expect the Panthers are going to have to play into the Chiefs’ strengths. I like the Chiefs in this game to pull away relatively early.
Chiefs 34 Panthers 21
Bears @ Titans -5.5 O/U: 46.5
The Bears seem to stick around in so many games. Their defense has been great this season, and they match up pretty well with the Titans in this game. AJ Brown is currently listed as questionable, so monitor his status ahead of Sunday’s game. I love the balanced attack of the Titans against most defenses, but last week really concerned me going forward.
The Bears were defeated by a team they outplayed for most of the game. If not for a complete game of breakdowns covering the Saints’ only healthy offensive weapon (Kamara), the Bears should’ve walked away with the win last week.
I see this game being another close one throughout, but I think the Titans will win in the end. The key here is, both teams have the ability to close a gap at any point in this game. That’s why I prefer the Bears here.
Titans 26 Bears 22
Ravens -2 @ Colts O/U: 47
The Colts are healthy on defense and have only really been susceptible to hot-throwing teams. The Ravens are coming off a close loss to the Steelers, despite dominating the ground battle. As hard as it may be to bet against Lamar Jackson, I think it’s very warranted here.
The Colts have had a stout run defense and Jackson has yet to prove to us he is capable of carving up even an average secondary in 2020. With Matthew Judon and a few other key defenders out for the Ravens, I expect the Colts will find decent success on the ground in this game. This is the only clear and discernable advantage I see in this game, so I’m going to have to lean Colts in a field goal kicking extravaganza.
Colts 23 Ravens 22
Seahawks -3 @ Bills O/U: 55
This game is my sneaky one of the week. Right now, everyone is salivating at the possibility of having a shootout between two pass-heavy teams. However, the Bills haven’t been playing very well offensively, and the Seahawks are getting All-Pro safety, Jamal Adams, back for the game.
The Bills are getting a boost in perception by their solid rushing effort a week ago, but the Patriots have been awful on run defense. The Seahawks are the better team and their quarterback has the green light to throw all game, every game now.
Josh Allen was out to a breakout season before crashing back down to earth after the first month. Now, the Bills are looking over their shoulder for the Dolphins in their division. I like the Seahawks to win in a semi-shootout here. I think the receivers on both sides are going to have a collectively huge game.
Seahawks 31 Bills 26
Texans -6.5 @ Jaguars O/U: 50.5
This one may be easier than it looks on paper. On paper, we may consider the Texans’ awful run defense and say, “the Jags have a massive advantage here and will be able to exploit it”. On the other hand, you can say, “the Texans are missing multiple linebackers, so James Robinson is about to go off.”
While this all seems interesting to consider, the two most important narratives are the Texans coach and the Jags new quarterback. The Jags will have rookie Jake Luton starting in the game. Anytime you get a rookie, especially one who hasn’t been groomed to start, you’re likely to get a conservative, run-happy approach. Knowing this, we should anticipate the Texans to be much more successful against the run than expected.
Also, Romeo Crennel wants very much to be the permanent head coach in Houston. He’s going to do all he can to get the win and cling to slim playoff hopes. I like the Texans here.
Texans 34 Jaguars 17
Raiders @ Chargers -1 O/U: 52
Somehow, we keep getting the Raiders scores right. I like the balanced teams and the Raiders are about as balanced as it gets. This game is interesting from many angles. First, we keep waiting for Herbert to have a bad week and it just hasn’t happened.
One could say the Raiders don’t appear to be the team to make that happen, but keep in mind, the Raiders stymied Pat Mahomes a few weeks ago in their landslide second-half comeback. The Chargers are something else, aren’t they? They sure know how to get out to a big lead and then promptly squander it. It’s not even funny at this point.
The only positive is, we know the Chargers probably aren’t going to cover in a lot of games. Regardless of who gets the lead in this game, both teams have the capacity to overcome decent deficits. The key for the Raiders will be balancing their offense well and taking some deep shots to keep the Chargers defense in check.
For the Chargers, their run game is really just utilized to keep the pressure off Herbert. A good indication of a team’s run game is evaluating how well they run the ball when they have the lead. The Chargers are awful running the ball in a positive game script, so expect more of the same heavy passing attack from the Chargers.
I expect this game to be a decent shootout, with both teams wrestling for momentum throughout. I expect this to come down to a late field goal, with the Chargers blowing a ten-point lead in the fourth quarter.
Raiders 30 Chargers 27
Dolphins @ Cardinals -4 O/U: 48
The Dolphins are playing great football right now, especially defensively. Currently, the Dolphins are number one in the league in points allowed per game (18.6). Their defensive schemes have been challenging for their opposition, but their new offense under Tua appears very raw and undefined.
The issue I have with the Dolphins is running back problems and the uncertainty around Tua. For one, Tua came into a tough situation last week. The Rams had a fierce defense, highlighted by Aaron Donald. Despite losing Jalen Ramsey early, the script never really called for Tua to do a whole lot in this game.
That’s going to change this week, as the Dolphins likely won’t get 14 points off defense and special teams this week. The big problem for the Dolphins this week will be containing Kyler Murray. Even with good corners, it’s extremely hard for defenses to prepare for a quarterback like Kyler Murray.
I expect this game to be lower scoring than many expect, but given the running back situation for both teams, I think we will see a lot less of the ground game from both sides (frequent clock stoppages from incompletions). I like Tua to have a good game, moving the ball comfortably. I simply have more faith in the Cardinals to get the win.
Cardinals 26 Dolphins 23
Steelers -13.5 @ Cowboys O/U: 41.5
The Cowboys are the worst team in the NFC right now. By record, the Steelers are the best team in the NFL right now. Despite this contrast, the Cowboys are somehow just 13.5-point underdogs. It doesn’t make sense. The only thing the Cowboys can do well, given their current roster, is run the ball (which they haven’t even been doing well lately).
The Steelers have one of the best run defenses in the league, but struggle defending downfield passing attacks at times (which the Cowboys also no longer do well, at all). The Cowboys pass defense is also atrocious this year. With the weapons the Steelers have in the passing game, it’s going to be a long day for the Cowboys.
I expect the Steelers to use this game as a showcase game, stretching the field in the passing game to throw off future defensive coordinators. All signs are pointing to the Steelers absolutely destroying the Cowboys this week. I have the Steelers blowing out America’s team in spectacular fashion.
Steelers 38 Cowboys 6
Saints @ Buccaneers -4 O/U: 51.5
The Saints have been barely winning games. The Bucs have been playing incredibly well, but fell into trying to run the ball too much a week ago. When you look at these two teams, a lot has changed since their Week One game. For one, Brady has a lot more reps under his belt this time around. Second, Gronk looks more like his old self than he did in the opener.
Third, the Saints offense has underperformed this season. Even without Michael Thomas playing, the Saints have the highest percentage of throws to the running back position. This is more than a smoke and mirrors offense than it is the fire and brimstone offense it was the past few seasons.
Every week, the Saints have relied heavily on Alvin Kamara between the 20s. I love the Bucs with the revenge angle in this game. I think Brady will take it personally and push the ball downfield with his new favorite toy, Antonio Brown. The Bucs have a lot of incentive here to beat up the Saints, so I expect both the Bucs to cover, and the long-awaited regression to hit the Saints.
Bucs 30 Saints 20
Patriots -7 @ Jets O/U: 42.5
Regionally, people care about this game, but I think nationally, everyone wants to Jets to win for one of two major reasons. For one, everyone hates the Patriots. Second, everyone who has a favorite team with one or two wins, wants their team to have a shot to get Trevor Lawrence in the upcoming draft.
Sadly, the Jets are either playing 4D chess and are losing on purpose, or they’re just awful. The truth is, it’s probably a little of both. The Patriots appear to be able to run the ball, but that’s about it. This Patriots team started out well, but has congealed into a horrible mess in recent weeks. Both these teams lack the weapons and big-play ability to score quickly.
Though many believe the obvious choice here is the Patriots, I think the line is just too large. I expect a close game and a semi-close win for the Patriots
Patriots 26 Jets 20