Week 7 was another solid week for us. We went 16-10, despite the Browns missing the extra point to cover at the end of the game, the Bills missing two field goals to blow the cover, the Falcons being complete idiots at the end of the game, and the Chargers getting a late cover.
We picked the exact score of the Steelers/ Titans game. This was our third direct hit of the season. We had the Bucs winning 35-27 over the Raiders, but the game wasn’t on the board on BetRivers at the time the article was published. Overall, the games were fun and entertaining. For the season, we are now back over .500 and looking to keep up the two-week win streak into the heart of the season.
2020 Regular Season Record: 105-103
A breakdown of Week 7 NFL picks
Here we take a look at all the main NFL Week 7 betting lines from the BetRivers Online Sportsbook. Got a minute? Check out a summary of Collin’s picks below. Got some more time? Read on for Collin’s in-depth analysis for his picks this week:
|Matchup/Line||Collin's Pick||Take With the Spread||Over/Under|
|Falcons @ Panthers -2 O/U: 52 ||Panthers 27 Falcons 24||Panthers||Under|
|Jets @ Chiefs -19.5 O/U: 49||Chiefs 35 Jets 13||Chiefs||Under|
|Vikings @ Packers -6.5 O/U: 51.5||Packers 31 Vikings 24||Packers||Under|
|Colts -3 @ Lions O/U: 50||Colts 23 Lions 19||Colts||Under|
|Rams -3.5 @ Dolphins O/U: 46||Rams 27 Dolphins 20||Dolphins||Over|
|Titans -5.5 @ Bengals O/U: 53.5||Titans 27 Bengals 19||Titans||Under|
|Raiders @ Browns -2.5 O/U: 51||Raiders 25 Browns 24||Raiders||Under|
|Patriots @ Bills -3.5 O/U: 42||Patriots 20 Bills 19||Bills||Under|
|Steelers @ Ravens -4 O/U: 46.5||Ravens 26 Steelers 23||Steelers||Over|
|Saints -4 @ Bears O/U: 43.5||Saints 29 Bears 16||Saints||Over|
|Cowboys @ Eagles -9 O/U: 43||Eagles 30 Cowboys 10||Eagles||Under|
|Buccaneers -11.5 @ Giants O/U: 45||Buccaneers 31 Giants 13||Bucs||Under|
Falcons @ Panthers -2 O/U: 52
The Falcons are back! By that, I mean back to losing games in dumb fashion. At this point, no Falcons fans even get mad about it. They’ve accepted it and I think it’s really nice we can all just laugh at them together. Well, last week, the joke was on me, because I picked them to beat the Panthers and cover. Of course, I should’ve known the Falcons would set it up to where Todd Gurley would brain fart while stumbling into the end zone.
Regardless, the Falcons are positioned very well in the 2021 draft, so there’s that. For this game, the Panthers are favored at home by two. It’s a lot closer than the first time these two played in Atlanta. The difference this time around is all the players the Falcons have back from injury. Regardless of how healthy they are now, the Falcons are still the Falcons.
To me, the Panthers have a more balanced offense and the motivation of a playoff spot. I think the Falcons will keep it close, but ultimately lose on a field goal.
Panthers 27 Falcons 24
Jets @ Chiefs -19.5 O/U: 49
The Jets finally covered last week. I wasn’t happy about it, but it just goes to show, even the worst-looking teams can cover a ten-point spread in the NFL (except the Cowboys of course, who are 0-7 ATS). I could be crazy for thinking this, but I believe the Chiefs are near 20-point favorites because they’re really good AND the Jets are terrible. Striking analysis, I know.
The matchup to key-in on in this game is the Jets rushing offense against the Chiefs bad rush defense. The Jets aren’t terrible defensively. They aren’t close to the bottom in either category, but they also aren’t good. Their issue is passing offense. At 159 YPG, the Jets are dead last in passing.
Conversely, the Chiefs have the fourth-best pass defense. It’s reasonable to expect the Jets to have some success running the ball early in this game. Where I expect it will become a blowout is the second half, when the Jets offense has to pass the ball and subsequently makes a series of mistakes to set up the Chiefs well offensively. I like the Chiefs to cover by the third quarter and hold the Jets to just a few early scores.
Chiefs 35 Jets 13
Vikings @ Packers -6.5 O/U: 51.5
The Vikings are back after a much-needed bye. Although, it wasn’t long enough, as it wasn’t long enough for us to forget the thrashing they took at the hands of the Falcons two weeks ago. Seriously, I don’t know what to think of the Vikings each week. I continue to incorrectly choose them each week. This time around, I’m not going to lean into this one.
The Packers are a pretty good team and beat the Vikings pretty easily the first time around. I may get this one wrong again, but I just don’t trust the Vikings, even if their run game matches up really well against the Packer’s bad rush defense. By all accounts, this is a trap game, and I’d avoid betting on it.
Packers 31 Vikings 24
Colts -3 @ Lions O/U: 50
The Colts have been fairly predictable this season. If the opposing team has a bad rush defense, the Colts typically do well. It’s that simple. The Lions have a pretty bad run defense and have won a couple of games this season where they were either lucky or let off the hook. The Lions were fortunate a week ago in their win over the Falcons, but this week’s matchup will really test their offense.
The Colts feature the league’s best defense (2nd against the pass and 3rd against the run). The Colts passing game is suspect. Rivers has been fairly ineffective most of the season, yet still managed to come through on a few occasions. I really like the Colts to win this one on the road and I love the under in this game.
Colts 23 Lions 19
Rams -3.5 @ Dolphins O/U: 46
The Dolphins are going to be up against a wall in Tua’s first start. One surprising fact about the Dolphins you may not know is, the Dolphins are third in points allowed (18.8 PPG). Conversely, the Rams are second in points allowed (17.7 PPG). It is worth considering the Dolphins have played the Jets twice, and have had a bye.
The scary part of this game is the spread being so low. I was expecting the Rams would be closer to six or seven-point favorites, but this line is strangely suspicious. I don’t expect the Rams offense to magically re-appear in this game, but I also don’t expect the Dolphins are going to shock the World on Tua’s first start. I have to go with the known commodity here, as unappealing as it may be.
Rams 27 Dolphins 20
Titans -5.5 @ Bengals O/U: 53.5
The Titans are back following a near-miraculous comeback against the Steelers. Let’s get something straight first. The Titans stuck to running the ball on early downs and expected it to work against the Steelers. Though they’re a balanced offense who can move the ball well through the air, the Titans strategy failed miserably. The only reason the Titans found their way back into this game was due to the Steelers playing way too conservatively in the second half, and turning the ball over.
The Bengals are bad on the defensive side of the ball and it’s cost them now in all but one game. I like the Titans in this game, because I think their offensive balances gives them the ability to both play from behind and protect a lead. I also believe the absence of Joe Mixon is going to leave the Bengals limited in this game. With so many arrows pointing the way of the Titans, I can’t see this going another way.
Titans 27 Bengals 19
Raiders @ Browns -2.5 O/U: 51
This game is the NFL equivalent of a psych ward fight. With the Raiders and Browns, we have two teams who look great one week and bad the next. Overall, both teams are probably pretty good. The problem here is that we have no idea what we are going to get from both on a week to week basis.
I expect the game to go a little like this. The Browns will feature the run a little more than the pass early on, using Kareem Hunt at the tune of around 13 touches in the first half. I anticipate the Raiders understand they are going to need to pass the ball a lot earlier in the game, especially with the Browns awful pass defense. With how well Derek Carr has been playing, it makes sense.
Expect to see a few big plays from either Ruggs or Agholor (maybe both). Josh Jacobs is nursing a sore knee, so I expect if anyone gets out to a lead in this game, it should be the Raiders through the air. I think we’ll be seeing a relatively high-scoring contest (given the crappy weather), with the Raiders pulling out a slim victory.
Raiders 25 Browns 24
Patriots @ Bills -3.5 O/U: 42
Both these teams are playing like crap right now. The Bills haven’t been awful, but they don’t resemble the explosive team we saw through the first few weeks of the season. The same can be said about the Patriots. After a hot start, the Patriots have been beaten down the past few games by run-first teams. If there’s a strength to this Patriots team, it’s their secondary.
On the other side, the Bills haven’t been the solid defense they were in 2019. However, the Patriots have been so bad passing the ball, I expect a lot of the Patriots ground game in this one. I like for the Patriots to bounce back and pull off a close win on the road. I just don’t see Buffalo running effectively enough with their backs, nor do I see them passing the ball well in bad weather.
Patriots 20 Bills 19
Steelers @ Ravens -4 O/U: 46.5
The Steelers are on fire. Their biggest issue has been playing well from start to finish. Aside from the complete game they played against the Browns, the Steelers have left a lot of meat on their plate each game, disappearing on both sides of the ball from time to time.
I like the Steelers in this game for a few reasons. For one, their rush defense lines up well against the Ravens’ dynamic rushing attack. Lamar features a different type of attack. I expect the Steelers to dare Lamar to beat them through the air, and I don’t think he’s going to be able to get it done. Just look at last season. The Steelers nearly beat the Ravens with Duck Hodges at quarterback.
I realize a lot of people are leaning Ravens here, but I think Lamar has a lot of stuff to work out and this week won’t be the week it happens. I like the Ravens to win in a squeaker, but I think the Steelers will cover.
Ravens 26 Steelers 23
Chargers -3.5 @ Broncos O/U: 44.5
The Chargers actually won and covered last week. It was surprising to see a game where they were able to protect their lead down the stretch, but if it was to happen against anyone, the Jaguars were a good candidate. The Broncos are coming off a deflating loss against the Chiefs, but a shocking victory against the Patriots.
The one certainty in this game is the Broncos pass defense. They’re 12th in the league in pass yards allowed, so they are going to be a much more competent pass defense than what the Chargers typically face. The issue here is the Broncos offense. We know they don’t pass the ball well, but their run game should be able to get it done against the Chargers.
I think the Chargers have the capacity to comeback against anyone, given their passing attack, but they also struggle to hold onto leads, so nearly any game script points to this game being very close. That being said, I think this game will be a three-point game and either way, a winning bet for Denver.
Chargers 24 Broncos 21
49ers @ Seahawks -2.5 O/U: 54
We got both these teams right last week and I feel one side has the advantage in this rivalry. I like the 49ers in this one due to their pass defense. I don’t think they’re shutting down Russell Wilson, but I expect most of the friction in this game to come from the Seattle passing game against the 49ers pass defense.
Anyone can pass on the Seahawks, and I don’t think it changes much here. Jimmy Garoppolo has looked much better than his first week back from injury. He won’t have Deebo Samuel, but he still has George Kittle, Deebo impersonator (Brandon Aiyuk), and a stable of running backs catching the ball out of the backfield. I like the Seahawks to win a close home game, but expect the 49ers to cover.
Seahawks 27 49ers 26
Saints -4 @ Bears O/U: 43.5
The Saints are getting healthy and the Bears are getting hurt where it matters most. Khalil Mack (ankle) and Allen Robinson (concussion) are both critical to the Bears success. If both or either of them miss the game, I think it’s a huge advantage for the Saints. The Bears scare nobody offensively, so I don’t see many scenarios where the Bears do much in this game.
I anticipate a lot of action from Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara in this game, as the Saints should jump back into the “Best among the NFC” conversation once again. The Saints are weather-proof, thanks to their low average depth of target offense. If the Bears don’t have Khalil Mack back for this game, I expect the Saints will have a field day.
Saints 29 Bears 16
Cowboys @ Eagles -9 O/U: 43
The Cowboys are a complete disaster or dumpster fire, depending on your preferred terminology. Their offensive line is decimated, they’re on the third-string quarterback, and their defense is as putrid as ever. The Cowboys released a defensive end and defensive tackle as well. While it’s not clear what this team plans to do moving forward, their current roster is set up perfectly to be completely annihilated this Sunday night in prime time.
The Eagles are coming off a comeback victory against the Giants and look to give their defense a huge confidence boost before the bye week. I like the Eagles to move the ball easily against the Cowboys, even in bad weather. I think the bad weather would just result in more Boston Scott this week, which should be just fine for the Eagles, as their defense should rule the day.
Eagles 30 Cowboys 10
Buccaneers -11.5 @ Giants O/U: 45
The Giants aren’t good. They aren’t good on either side of the ball and that’s only really a problem if the other team has a good defense. Bad news — the Buccaneers have a good defense and a balanced offense. There’s going to be a lot of different ways for the Buccaneers to beat the Giants in this game.
For the Giants, they’re either going to have to find a way to run or find a way to pass in this game and I don’t see either of those things happening. If you play this game ten times, I think the Giants may cover twice. Take the Bucs with confidence this week.
Buccaneers 31 Giants 13