Week Five was our third losing week of 2020 and also the third week in a row. The overs are covering at an insane rate. Much of it is the lack of practice and preseason due to protocols.
Keeping that in mind, the total points lines have been grossly raised the past few weeks, and teams are still covering them. Last season, it was rare to see more than a game each week over 50 points and this week alone, there are eight. It’s been killing the weekly picks under this format, but we have to play within the rules of the picks, so let’s turn it around this week and try to get back to .500.
2020 Regular Season Record: 74-82
A breakdown of Week 6 NFL picks
Here we take a look at all the main NFL Week 6 betting lines from the BetRivers Online Sportsbook. Got a minute? Check out a summary of Collin’s picks below. Got some more time? Read on for Collin’s in-depth analysis for his picks this week:
|Matchup/Line||Collin's Pick||Take With the Spread||Over/Under|
|Ravens -9.5 @ Eagles O/U: 47.5 ||Ravens 34 Eagles 17||Ravens||Over|
|Washington Football Team @ Giants -2.5 O/U: 43||Washington Football Team 20 Giants 19||Washington Football Team||Under|
|Browns @ Steelers -3.5 O/U: 51||Steelers 31 Browns 21||Steelers||Over|
|Lions -3.5 @ Jaguars O/U: 54.5||Lions 27 Jaguars 26||Jaguars||Under|
|Texans @ Titans -3.5 O/U: 53||Titans 30 Texans 27||Texans||Over|
|Falcons @ Vikings -4 O/U: 54||Vikings 31 Falcons 26||Vikings||Over|
|Bengals @ Colts -8 O/U: 46.5||Colts 27 Bengals 16||Colts||Under|
|Bears @ Panthers -1 O/U: 44.5||Bears 23 Panthers 20||Bears||Under|
|Jets @ Dolphins -9.5 O/U: 47||Dolphins 35 Jets 13||Dolphins||Over|
|Packers -1 @ Buccaneers O/U: 55||Buccaneers 27 Packers 24||Bucs||Under|
|Rams -3 @ 49ers O/U: 52||49ers 27 Rams 24||49ers||Under|
|Chiefs -4 @ Bills O/U: 57.5||Chiefs 34 Bills 26||Chiefs||Over|
|Cardinals -1 @ Cowboys O/U: 55||Cowboys 31 Cardinals 27||Cowboys||Over|
Ravens -9.5 @ Eagles O/U: 47.5
The Ravens are the kind of team who plays exponentially better in a positive game script and worse when they are in a negative game script. On the other side, you never really know what to expect from the Eagles. The Eagles play very specific to their opponent, which is what teams should do, but the difference is, Carson Wentz has been turnover-prone this season.
In addition to being turnover prone, Wentz is also very capable of making difficult passes. Last week, we saw Wentz complete a number of throws under duress and in tight coverage. Don’t rule the Eagles out in these comeback situations, because Wentz is equipped to do it. For this game, I think the Eagles will attempt to employ the gameplan laid out by the Titans in the playoffs last season and the Chiefs this season.
I simply don’t have any faith in the Eagles ability to stop Jackson, even if the blueprint is there. The defensive front is good, but the secondary is garbage. If Lamar gets into his balanced rhythm, which I expect he will do, the Ravens are going to run away with this one.
Ravens 34 Eagles 17
Washington Football Team @ Giants -2.5 O/U: 43
Both these teams are kind of a joke. Kyle Allen was decent last season in limited action, but he had an absurdly high amount last season, so it’s something to consider. Daniel Jones has been very unimpressive, to say the least but consider this: Jones fumbles quite a bit. He also has the capacity to make plays with his feet.
The Giants offensive line is trash. The Washington offensive line isn’t much better. Expect this game to get bogged down. Both these teams like to attempt to run the ball and you can bet with Kyle Allen going against Daniel Jones, this game is going to be a jab-fest, with both teams playing conservative.
This will come down to who makes the more critical mistakes. Personally, I like the Washington defensive front and think it’s the most solid unit on the field.
I expect this one to be a nail biter, but I like Washington to get it done with a late, narrow victory. They have the better run game and in a conservative matchup, the Giants are weak against the run.
Washington Football Team 20 Giants 19
Browns @ Steelers -3.5 O/U: 51
These teams are matched-up well. I went over this game in my Steelers column and expressed confidence in the Steelers’ ability to exploit the Browns secondary by balancing unique runs and quick passes to freeze the blitz. The Steelers and Browns are two of the best blitzing teams in the NFL. Both teams also love to run the ball.
For the Browns, they’ll have the advantage of having a better offensive line and a better run game. This will allow them to open up play-action and take shots against a Steelers defense, whose only issue is covering balls deep downfield.
For the Steelers, their offensive line and run game isn’t as prolific, so they’ll have to rely on deception at the line of scrimmage to give Roethlisberger enough time to take advantage of the Browns’ terrible secondary.
I think this game will be full of big plays on both sides, but I don’t trust Baker Mayfield to take advantage of a struggling secondary and I absolutely trust Ben Roethlisberger to accomplish that on the other side. I like the Steelers to cover and for the game to go over.
Steelers 31 Browns 21
Lions -3.5 @ Jaguars O/U: 54.5
The Jaguars have really struggled against teams who can throw the ball. The Lions can’t stop anyone who runs the ball. It’s not a matter of this being a game of “something’s got to give.” This game is going to be more about who can take advantage of the other more.
Both these teams are capable of making a comeback. However, the Jaguars are more trustworthy playing from ahead. The problem I see for the Jaguars is if they get down in this game, will they be able to hang in this one with a banged-up receiving corps?
The Lions have hung tough in games but struggled against the run. When you look at their lone victory, it was a game against a team that has had little success rushing the ball (at the RB position) this season with Arizona.
The Jaguars run the ball well and they have the capacity to cause issues through the air. Right now, a lot of action is on Detroit on the road. I like the Jags to cover narrowly. Get in before it’s too late.
Lions 27 Jaguars 26
Texans @ Titans -3.5 O/U: 53
The Titans won their last game by such a wide margin and honestly, it was misleading. Realistically, the Titans were bailed out a few times on what should’ve been field goals but instead were touchdowns.
Why they won by as much as they did was turnovers and third-down efficiency. Though I do think it was an outlier, the Titans are a great team. I simply don’t believe they should be undefeated. The Texans finally freed themselves of Bill O’Brien and the results were amazing. Deshaun Watson revived Brandin Cooks from the dead and the Texans pulled away. For the Texans, it was a much-needed win.
This week, the Texans will be traveling to Nashville to face the Titans, who are coming off a nice victory Tuesday against the Bills. It’s a short week for Tennessee, but it’s hard to go against the Titans when they’ve been so efficient each week. Even though the run game has been down for the Titans, their passing game has been clean and super-efficient.
I expect AJ Brown will have a difficult matchup against Roby on the outside and I think it’s going to be difficult for the Titans, on a short week, to scheme for the Texans here.
Titans 30 Texans 27
Falcons @ Vikings -4 O/U: 54
The Vikings looked really bad through the first two and a half weeks. It wasn’t until their game with the Titans where they looked competent again, at least for stretches. Aside from being too driven by schemes and tendencies, the Vikings have struggled defensively.
Last week, they came out aggressive and got out to a big lead, before falling in love with the run game and letting the lead slip away. The Falcons have some defensive personnel returning this week, as well as Julio Jones. Though Jones doesn’t look near the same, his presence should help free up Calvin Ridley. Both these teams appear to be settling in, but the Vikings ground attack appears to be the major advantage in this contest.
I’m expecting this to be a high scoring affair, and both teams have the ability to strike quickly. Though there’s a chance it stays relatively tight, I expect the Vikings to control the game. I do anticipate a late push by Atlanta to close the gap, but not enough to cover.
Vikings 31 Falcons 26
Bengals @ Colts -8 O/U: 46.5
The Bengals are a frisky team. Joe Burrow has been very effective against teams with flawed defenses. When he’s been asked to do too much, it’s proven to be too much for the Bengals. Against the Chargers, the Bengals struggled to move the ball on the ground and couldn’t overcome the talented Chargers secondary through the air.
Burrow also struggled against the Ravens, a solid overall defense. He had trouble early against the Browns, but when the Browns went to a prevent defense, Burrow rolled up a lot of empty stats.
The Colts are pretty straightforward. Philip Rivers is struggling to move the ball downfield. He has been most effective countering blitzes with screens, but the strength of the Colts (run defense and rushing offense) both matchup really well against the Bengals.
I think this game will be pretty straightforward. The Colts are likely going to focus on stopping the run and forcing Burrow to beat their secondary via mixed schemes. The Colts have the league’s top pass defense and are third against the run. I just don’t see a young team like the Bengals keeping it really close on the road.
Colts 27 Bengals 16
Bears @ Panthers -1 O/U: 44.5
The Panthers are playing some really good football ever since they moved away from the “give it to McCaffrey” gameplan they employed every week. They are 3-0 since losing McCaffrey and trying to position themselves for a playoff spot. I don’t think either of these teams is really that good, honestly. However, I like the Bears more for this matchup.
Teddy Bridgewater struggled against the Bucs and the Bears have similar defensive chops. The Bears may not have a run game strong enough to exploit the weak Panthers run defense, but if David Montgomery is going to have a breakout game before the end of the season, this game is a strong candidate. From a matchup standpoint, I like the Bears to win a close one on the road.
Bears 23 Panthers 20
Jets @ Dolphins -9.5 O/U: 47
Ryan Fitzpatrick is playing like he doesn’t have a care in the world. He’s slinging the ball downfield with nothing to lose and the Dolphins defense has played very well against non-elite passing teams. There are few scenarios where the Jets actually win this game.
Some of the Jets players over the past season have openly asked to get out, the coach is blaming everyone but himself, and the Dolphins defense is playing with swagger. All signs are pointing to the Dolphins here.
Dolphins 35 Jets 13
Packers -1 @ Buccaneers O/U: 55
I’m not falling for this one. Everyone and their mother wants us to think the Packers are for real and Aaron Rodgers has been sent on a mission from God. I’m not buying it. The Packers struggle against 12 personnel, which the Bucs use frequently.
They also haven’t faced a team with a defense as solid as Tampa’s yet. Everyone thought the Saints had a solid defense heading into the season, but Justin Herbert confirmed what we had suspected prior to last week.
If the Saints let a rookie carve them up for four touchdowns, missing their lead back and losing their top receiver in the first quarter, imagine what Tom Brady will do with Evans and Godwin.
I like the Bucs in this game. I think Rodgers is going to benefit from having his top target return, but I will take the home dog after a close loss. I expect it to be close, but I don’t think the Packers have been tested to this point yet.
They beat the Falcons with an injured Julio and a hobbled Ridley. They beat the Lions without Golladay, and they beat the Saints without Michael Thomas. It’s time for them to pay the Piper this week.
Buccaneers 27 Packers 24
Rams -3 @ 49ers O/U: 52
Just like the game before, this one doesn’t smell right. The early line actually favored the 49ers by three, but after the Niners were completely shredded to pieces by the Dolphins, the line jumped the other direction.
It was clear Jimmy Garoppolo was struggling with the ankle. Had it not been for the egregious picks and the 49ers secondary constantly expecting the Dolphins to just sit on the lead, this game may have been a lot closer. I think had the Dolphins not jumped off to such a fast start, the 49ers wouldn’t have felt so pressed to abandon their gameplan and chuck the ball downfield so frequently.
Much like the Ravens against the Chiefs, this is a tale of game script. I believe Shanahan knows the Rams well. Consider the situation the 49ers are in right now. They just got embarrassed against the Dolphins.
They’re going to go right back to the drawing board and realize they need to get back to that dynamic rushing attack. It’s a must-win for the 49ers at home this week. I like them to pull out a last-second victory.
49ers 27 Rams 24
Chiefs -4 @ Bills O/U: 57.5
The Chiefs seem to turn the switch on and off more than a four-year-old holding a flashlight. They’ve endured stretches this season where they disappear on offense for two quarters. Whether it’s the first or second half really depends. It also doesn’t seem to depend on anything in particular.
Now, they’re playing a humbled Bills team who simply couldn’t catch a break in a runaway loss in Tennessee. One fun fact is the Chiefs are incredibly strong against the blitz and the Bills blitz the 8th most in the NFL (courtesy of Warren Sharp).
If the Bills stick to this plan, I think they’re going to be eviscerated. Fortunately, I have confidence the Bills can put together a decent enough gameplan to avoid death by single coverage.
Though I’m confident the Bills won’t get their doors blown off this week, I think it’s much more plausible the loss of Tre’Davious White will be substantial and the Chiefs won’t encounter much resistance. Andy Reid is historically good coming off a loss, so I like the Chiefs to clear the spread here.
Chiefs 34 Bills 26
Cardinals -1 @ Cowboys O/U: 55
I’m doing it again. I’m about to take Dallas. I know they’re 0-5 on the season against the spread, but I think everyone is way too down on the Cowboys right now. Everyone is so focused on Kyler Murray against a pathetic Cowboys defense, but they should be more focused on the Dallas rushing attack against a weak rushing defense.
Andy Dalton is one of the best backups in the league. He is surrounded by weapons, and he looked sharp against the Giants the week before in limited action. I feel good about the Cowboys this week. Now, if their defense comes out and gets chewed up by a one-dimensional offense again, I probably won’t be picking them until they play Washington.
Cowboys 31 Cardinals 27