Week Four was our second losing week of the season at 10-20. It was bad. I consciously tried to keep the scores down in my predictions because the overs have been winning so much in 2020, but when you try to do this, it usually backfires.
On the season, we are a little under .500 but this is the way of NFL betting. There are ebbs and flows to a season and we’ll get back on the winning track soon.
2020 Regular Season Record: 61-65
A breakdown of Week 5 NFL picks
Here we take a look at all the main NFL Week 5 betting lines from the BetRivers Online Sportsbook. Got a minute? Check out a summary of Collin’s picks below. Got some more time? Read on for Collin’s in-depth analysis for his picks this week:
|Matchup/Line||Collin's Pick||Take With the Spread||Over/Under|
|Cardinals -7 @ Jets O/U: 47 ||Cardinals 31 Jets 20||Cardinals||Over|
|Eagles @ Steelers -7 O/U: 44.5||Steelers 24 Eagles 20||Eagles||Under|
|Raiders @ Chiefs -11.5 O/U: 55||Chiefs 34 Raiders 20||Chiefs||Under|
|Jaguars @ Texans -5.5 O/U: 54||Texans 31 Jaguars 27||Jaguars||Over|
|Rams -7.5 @ Washington Football Team O/U: 46.5||Without Young: Rams 27 Washington 17 With Young: Rams 24 Washington 17||Rams||Under|
|Panthers @ Falcons -1.5 O/U: 53.5||Panthers 29 Falcons 24||Panthers||Under|
|Bengals @ Ravens -12 O/U: 51||Ravens 31 Bengals 21||Bengals||Over|
|Dolphins @ 49ers -9 O/U: 51.5||49ers 33 Dolphins 17||49ers||Under|
|Giants @ Cowboys -8.5 O/U: 53.5||Cowboys 31 Giants 23||Giants||Over|
|Colts -1 @ Browns O/U: 47.5||Colts 23 Browns 20||Colts||Under|
|Vikings @ Seahawks -7 O/U: 57||Seahawks 35 Vikings 21||Seahawks||Under|
|Chargers @ Saints -7.5 O/U: 51||Saints 31 Chargers 19||Saints||Under|
Cardinals -7 @ Jets O/U: 47
The Cardinals have been relatively bad lately. They’ve dropped two in a row now to the Panthers and the Lions. On the surface, both games look like hiccups. However, when you start getting more than one hiccup game, it’s a sign the team really isn’t as good as you think it is.
On the flip side, the Jets are just awful. Their defense is bad and reckless, while their offense is one-dimensional and inconsistent. This spread could be 13 and I’d still be looking for a reason to take the Cardinals. I like the Cardinals to cover, but I have less faith in the Cardinals going forward.
Cardinals 31 Jets 20
Eagles @ Steelers -7 O/U: 44.5
This isn’t a rivalry, even though it really should be. Thanks to the NFL in their early days, we’ve been sapped of a clear in-state rivalry that could’ve given us years of entertainment. Nevertheless, the two will face off this week with a big opportunity for both to extend their lead in their respective divisions.
Even though scoring has been up this season, I like this game to slide in just under the projected total. I think both teams will have some difficulty protecting the quarterback, but ultimately, the Steelers defense will step up big down the stretch.
Steelers 24 Eagles 20
Raiders @ Chiefs -11.5 O/U: 55
The Chiefs are 3-1 against the spread in 2020, while the Raiders are 2-2. The Chiefs defense has been playing some great defense lately, while the Raiders seem to show up for spurts in a game and then completely disappear. The Chiefs can get points quickly and I think one burst from them in this game is going to be too much for the Raiders to deal with.
As much as I tend to go with the underdog in spreads like this, the Chiefs have been beating teams badly this season (aside from the Chargers). Sure, there’s a chance they are sluggish again on offense. It will more than likely be the case for the majority of the game. However, once the Chiefs go on one of these scoring spurts, this game will be over.
Chiefs 34 Raiders 20
Jaguars @ Texans -5.5 O/U: 54
I’m still not sure why the Texans are 5.5-point favorites in this game. Sure, the Jaguars haven’t been playing especially well lately, but their ground attack is pretty good and the Texans have been getting shredded in rushing yards allowed per game (181.8). The Texans are currently dead last in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game.
Offensively, the Texans have some advantages too. The Jaguars are 23rd in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game, which is bad, given their opponents this season (Titans, Dolphins, Colts, Bengals). I think Deshaun Watson and Will Fuller are going to have a field day and squeeze out their first win against the Jaguars, but I would expect this game to be very close throughout.
Texans 31 Jaguars 27
Rams -7.5 @ Washington Football Team O/U: 46.5
The Rams have, in a sense, been playing to the level of their competition all season. Their dynamic offense has one kryptonite, a good pass rush. I don’t think Kyle Allen will be much of an upgrade over Dwayne Haskins in this game, so I’m conflicted. Both sides appear to have glaring weaknesses. Because of both teams and their perceived struggles, I can’t see this game going over.
Aside from that, if the Washington Football team get Chase Young back, that’s going to be the difference in this game. If Chase Young plays, I like Washington to cover. If Young sits, I like the Rams by ten.
Without Young: Rams 27 Washington 17 With Young: Rams 24 Washington 17
Panthers @ Falcons -1.5 O/U: 53.5
The Panthers are playing better football lately. After the first two weeks and the loss of Christian McCaffrey to a hamstring injury, all seemed lost for them. Despite that, the Panthers are 2-0 since McCaffrey’s injury, with upsets in both games.
On the other side, the Falcons are looking progressively worse. Julio Jones is out, the secondary is banged up, and Calvin Ridley is banged up. With no semblance of a secondary and weapons missing all over the field, I love the Panthers to take to the air against the NFL’s 31st ranked pass defense (341.5 YPG). Since the Falcons feature a top 10 rush defense, the air attack makes much more sense.
These types of contests (air vs air) typically result in the over, since incompletions stop the clock so frequently. Though the Panthers feature a much better pass defense than run defense, I find it hard to believe the Falcons are going to go away from the passing game much in this game, since that’s practically all they do. It would be wise to run the ball for Atlanta, but we’ve seen this a few times before and we know how it turns out for them.
Panthers 29 Falcons 24
Bengals @ Ravens -12 O/U: 51
Lamar Jackson has not looked the same so far in 2020. It’s not as if his skills suddenly declined or anything. The Ravens have just been a lot more conscious about his health and shifting him more towards the passing game. Though their matchup against Washington didn’t exactly stress the Ravens too much, it was nice to see them getting back to the formula that won them so many games a season ago.
The Ravens are aware of the offensive potency the Bengals have in 2020. Seeing as how the Ravens are well acquainted with the Bengals, I doubt they will overlook the Bengals here, as I expect the Ravens defense to frustrate Joe Burrow and for the Ravens to open this one up early in the second half. However, I do see the Bengals getting a late cover after RG3 comes in early in the fourth.
Ravens 31 Bengals 21
Dolphins @ 49ers -9 O/U: 51.5
This game is tremendously interesting to me. The spread here is a little confusing, given both the way the 49ers played last week and the way the Dolphins have played teams tough all season. I like the Dolphins to hang tough as the 49ers offense shakes off the rust.
I think the Dolphins will keep it pretty close throughout, but the 49ers pass rush and efficient run game will be too challenging for the Dolphins. I think the 49ers will get off to a strong third quarter and put the game out of reach and I’m expecting one or two Fitzpatrick turnovers in the second half to seal it for good.
49ers 33 Dolphins 17
Giants @ Cowboys -8.5 O/U: 53.5
The Cowboys look awful defensively. Offensively, they look terrific. Unfortunately for them, they just lost a key offensive lineman for the season with a neck injury. The Giants also look pretty bad, but don’t have near the offensive capabilities as the Cowboys. For obvious reasons, this game is projected to be a shootout.
I can’t see a scenario where both offenses get bogged down, but I do envision a few where the Giants simply can’t keep up with the Cowboys. I like the Cowboys in this game, but I think we will see a lot less scoring than everyone imagines here. The Giants are 11th against the run and 5th against the pass. Expect this game to be a little closer than you think. I like the Cowboys here but think the Giants will barely cover.
Cowboys 31 Giants 23
Colts -1 @ Browns O/U: 47.5
The Colts are a stout team, built on a balanced approach around a veteran quarterback. The Colts also feature the league’s top pass defense and the league’s fourth-best rush defense (77 YPG). The Browns have the league’s fifth-best rush defense (91 YPG) but have the third-worst passing defense (310 YPG). The “something has to give” case here is centered on the Browns rushing attack against the Colts run defense.
The Browns are the top rushing attack in football at 204.5 yards per game. Seeing as how they’ve played the Cowboys and Bengals, I wouldn’t give them too much credit. Also, consider Nick Chubb is going to miss some time with injury.
The good news there is D’Ernest Johnson is legitimately good. With Johnson, Hunt, and Hillard platooning in the backfield, the Browns should have moderate success running the ball in the game. My doubts lay with Baker Mayfield against the Colts secondary. I think that ends up being the difference in this relatively low-scoring affair.
Colts 23 Browns 20
Vikings @ Seahawks -7 O/U: 57
I like the matchup for the Seahawks’ offense in this game, obviously. The Vikings have been in complete disarray. For the Vikings, I’d say it’s a great matchup, except for the fact the Vikings wait way too long before passing the ball in games.
Maybe they learned something from last week, but I’m skeptical. Asking the Vikings to adopt an aggressive, pass-heavy approach because the matchup calls for it is like telling your dad to just ask for directions in 1995. I think the Seahawks will jump all over the Vikings early and cruise to an easy victory at home. I like the Seahawks to cover easily.
Seahawks 35 Vikings 21
Chargers @ Saints -7.5 O/U: 51
The Chargers are a little overrated. Even at 1-3, it’s clear the loss of Derwin James is having a big impact on them this season. Last week, Tom Brady threw for five touchdowns against them. Though they managed to shut down the Bengals and slow the Chiefs, the Chargers were dissected last week.
With Drew Brees hosting his former team on Monday night, I’m sure there’s going to be three or four more balls stashed aside for Brees when he breaks another record for being old on Monday Night Football. The Saints have issues of their own on defense, but I have to go with the team who’s been playing pretty well all season versus the one who only seems to play well for halves.
I like the Saints to control this game and for Brees to break another dumb record by the end of it.
Saints 31 Chargers 19