Week 3 was our first losing week of the season at 15-17. The spreads were tough and the funny spread (Tennessee vs Minnesota) ended up being as much of a trap as it looked. The Bills also covered against the Rams when they definitely shouldn’t have. Regardless, we took the bait. As far as the rest of the games went, we only really nailed a couple, while the rest were 1-1 splits, at best.
This week, we are looking to rebound as the Titans vs Steelers game has now been postponed to Week 7.
2020 Regular Season Record: 51-45
A breakdown of Week 4 NFL picks
Here we take a look at all the main NFL Week 4 betting lines from the BetRivers Online Sportsbook. Got a minute? Check out a summary of Collin’s picks below. Got some more time? Read on for Collin’s in-depth analysis for his picks this week:
|Matchup/Line||Collin's Pick||Take With the Spread||Over/Under|
|Chargers @ Buccaneers -7 O/U: 43 ||Buccaneers 23 Chargers 22||Chargers||Over|
|Cardinals -3 @ Panthers O/U: 51||Cardinals 26 Panthers 20||Cardinals||Under|
|Vikings @ Texans -4 O/U: 53.5||Texans 31 Vikings 21||Texans||Under|
|Ravens -13.5 @ Washington Football Team O/U: 45.5||Ravens 34 Washington Football Team 13||Ravens||Over|
|Browns @ Cowboys -4.5 O/U: 56||Cowboys 33 Browns 27||Cowboys||Over|
|Seahawks -6 @ Dolphins O/U: 53.5||Seahawks 34 Dolphins 30||Dolphins||Over|
|Saints -4 @ Lions O/U: 54.5||Saints 27 Lions 24||Lions||Under|
|Jaguars @ Bengals -2.5 O/U: 49.5||Bengals 24 Jaguars 20 With Chark: Jaguars 26 Bengals 23||Bengals||Under|
|Colts -2.5 @ Bears O/U: 43||Colts 23 Bears 22||Bears||Over|
|Giants @ Rams -13 O/U: 48||Rams 35 Giants 14||Rams||Over|
|Bills -3.5 @ Raiders O/U: 52.5||Raiders 26 Bills 23||Raiders||Under|
|Patriots @ Chiefs -7 O/U: 53||Chiefs 27 Patriots 24||Patriots||Under|
|Eagles @ 49ers -7 O/U: 46||49ers 26 Eagles 16||49ers||Under|
|Falcons @ Packers -7 O/U: 56.5||Packers 30 Falcons 27||Falcons||Over|
Chargers @ Buccaneers -7 O/U: 43
The Chargers come into this game following a very sloppy loss to the Panthers. The Bucs are coming off a sound win against the Broncos a week ago. It’s tough to really assess the Bucs because their last game was such a weird matchup against a backup quarterback. No one is really sure how good their defense actually is.
Meanwhile, the Chargers will be without Chris Harris at corner, but the Bucs will likely be without a few of their key receivers. It’s an interesting matchup, but I have to go with the home team here. I like the Buccaneers to win but the Chargers to cover in a game down to the wire.
Buccaneers 23 Chargers 22
Cardinals -3 @ Panthers O/U: 51
Cardinals are a team completely dependent on the play of their quarterback. As Kyler Murray goes, so do the Cardinals. I think the Panthers got a little lucky last week against the Chargers and the Cardinals were unlucky against the Lions. Had both those games gone the other way, we’d be looking at a seven-point spread here. My point is, I think the Cardinals should win this one and it should be at least a touchdown.
Both teams have poor run defenses, as the Cardinals rank 31st and the Panthers rank 22nd against opposing running backs. I expect the long-awaited breakout game for Kenyan Drake and a near equal effort from Mike Davis. In the end, I like the Cardinals, because of the playmaking ability of Kyler Murray.
Cardinals 26 Panthers 20
Vikings @ Texans -4 O/U: 53.5
The Vikings did a pretty good job playing dead for two weeks and then nearly shocking the Titans last week. It was working for most the game, and then the Titans realized they had Derrick Henry. With the Purple People Eaters now playing more like purple dinosaurs, the Texans have to be relieved.
However, the Texans have been on the receiving end of their own beatdowns through the first three weeks too. Both Minnesota and Houston’s run defenses rank in the bottom third of the league, so you can guarantee both will be trying to earn it on the ground. However, the Vikings are also ranked 29th against opposing receivers, while the Texans are only 11th.
With Deshaun Watson’s playmaking abilities at quarterback and Kirk Cousins’ ability to turn the ball over, I think the advantage here is with the Texans. With the home crowd behind them and the first non-brutal opponent of the season in town, I like for the Texans to pull away in this game.
Texans 31 Vikings 21
Ravens -13.5 @ Washington Football Team O/U: 45.5
There is a lot that can go wrong in this game for the Washington Football Team.
For one, the Ravens are coming off a very rare home loss in which both the offense and defense looked out of sorts. Washington has looked more and more inept since the second half of week one, confirming to many it was more of a mirage and the product of the Eagles being the Eagles.
I normally don’t endorse such a high spread in an NFL game, but the Ravens are just better all-around. Also, Chase Young is likely to miss the contest with a groin strain, so I expect the Ravens to cruise in this one.
Ravens 34 Washington Football Team 13
Browns @ Cowboys -4.5 O/U: 56
The Browns are running the ball great and the Cowboys defense isn’t doing much. Conversely, the Cowboys are putting up points galore and opposing defenses haven’t really been slowing them down, outside a few quiet quarters.
This game has the makings of a shootout, but I feel a lot more confident about Dak Prescott than I do Baker Mayfield. I think the game will start out relatively conservatively for the Browns, but a deficit in the second half will force Baker’s hand. With Odell dealing with a back issue, I like the Cowboys to Close this one out in a shootout.
Cowboys 33 Browns 27
Seahawks -6 @ Dolphins O/U: 53.5
These Dolphins are not getting the attention they probably should be getting. It’s not like everyone should be fawning over the Dolphins or anything, but they’ve lost two close games to two good teams in Buffalo and New England.
The Dolphins have a tremendous coach and a lot of young talent. Oh, and there’s the play of old man Fitzpatrick and the prospect of facing the NFL’s current worst passing defense. Sure, Fitzpatrick could have one of those games where he throws five picks and the Dolphins lose in a landslide, but it’s more likely Fitzpatrick has a big game and the Dolphins are in a real fight until the end in this likely shootout.
Seahawks 34 Dolphins 30
Saints -4 @ Lions O/U: 54.5
Saints are just the Alvin Kamara show now. It’s no longer this free-flowing, offensive juggernaut it once was in recent years, but the Saints are still a good all-around team. Even if every play is just a screen to Alvin Kamara, it’s working. The Lions pieced together a good game three and got a little lucky in their win against the Cardinals.
Frankly, the team should probably be 2-1 because of Swift’s dropped game-winner in the opener, but here we are. I like the Lions chances in this game, but it’s so hard to go against the Saints right now, especially knowing their defense is likely to cause some issues for Stafford in a negative game script. I like the Saints here in a close one
Saints 27 Lions 24
Jaguars @ Bengals -2.5 O/U: 49.5
The Bengals are 0-2-1 now, with both their losses coming within one score. They aren’t awful, folks. I’ve been saying it for weeks, but now it’s time for them to prove it. I like the Bengals this week if DJ Chark sits out for the Jags. If he plays, I like the Jags to win a close one.
It may seem silly to swing a game like this based on one guy, but the Jags turn to Chark in the red zone, and as we saw last week, they are extremely limited without his presence on the outside. I expect this to be a relatively low-scoring game, with a heavy emphasis on the run game on both sides.
Bengals 24 Jaguars 20 With Chark: Jaguars 26 Bengals 23
Colts -2.5 @ Bears O/U: 43
As we originally suspected, the Colts are indeed a good team. Week 1 was an off week, especially for the defense. With that loss in the rearview, the Colts have looked really solid in their last two games. Meanwhile, the Bears have been a different story.
The Bears should’ve lost Week 1 to the Lions, had it not been for a dropped touchdown at the end. They barely escaped the Broncos in Week 2, and they needed every second of regulation to come back against the Falcons and their sad defense. I think the Bears are getting far too much credit to this point, and their matchup in this game is not great.
The Bears have a below-average run defense and a top ten pass defense, while the Colts have a top ten pass defense and a top six run defense. With both teams having a run-first approach, I think the Colts will be better suited in this game, as they should ultimately leave Chicago with a narrow victory.
Colts 23 Bears 22
Giants @ Rams -13 O/U: 48
Okay, so this one is pretty easy. The Rams have a very strong defensive front, anchored by Aaron Donald. The Giants have a very bad offensive line. The Giants also have no legitimate run game and only one dangerous receiver (Darrius Slayton). For the Rams, they bring a very unique passing attack to face a defense ranking 22nd against opposing receivers.
This game should be a feast for the Rams on both sides of the ball. Though I expect Daniel Jones to make a few nice plays, expect a long day for the Giants.
Rams 35 Giants 14
Bills -3.5 @ Raiders O/U: 52.5
The Bills are 3-0. Sure, they haven’t been the strong defensive team we once thought they were. However, they have blossomed into a strong passing offense. Though the Bills have been fortunate to this point, I think their luck will run out this week in Las Vegas.
The Bills matchup poorly against tight ends (24th) and the Raiders love a balanced attack between the run and peppering their tight end, Darren Waller. The Bills are decent against the run, but consider they’ve played the Jets and Dolphins, who have horrible rushing attacks. They are indeed vulnerable on the ground, so expect a decent game from Josh Jacobs. The Raiders have been strong against opposing quarterbacks in this limited sample size.
Though it has been limited, Josh Allen will present an array of challenges for the Raiders secondary. I like the matchup here for the Raiders and think they’ll pull this one out at home.
Raiders 26 Bills 23
Patriots @ Chiefs -7 O/U: 53
The Patriots are a sound team. That being said, their offensive potency seems to be completely dependent on the weaknesses of their opponent. This week, the Patriots will face the Chiefs, who are mediocre against the run, but solid against the pass. The Chiefs came out and never took their foot off the gas against Baltimore.
I don’t envision the Chiefs altering their gameplan against the Patriots, especially when you consider the Patriots are a top ten run defense.
I like how the Chiefs offense seems to be game script proof, whereas the Patriots have more of an unproven ground game but have also shown they can keep up against poor pass defenses. The Chiefs aren’t a poor pass defense. I like the Chiefs in this game but think it’ll be close.
Chiefs 27 Patriots 24
Eagles @ 49ers -7 O/U: 46
The Eagles have been bad and it starts and ends with Carson Wentz. Defensively, the Eagles have looked exposed, especially in the secondary. The pass rush has been there for the Eagles, which you would expect would give them an advantage in coverage. Unfortunately, it hasn’t translated. The 49ers will welcome back George Kittle and Deebo Samuel this week, but with Nick Mullens at quarterback, they’re going to be limited offensively.
This whole game really depends on Carson Wentz. The Eagles also have a tendency to play much better against good teams, so I think the Eagles may have an opportunity to close the gap late. I just don’t think they’ll get it done.
49ers 26 Eagles 16
Falcons @ Packers -7 O/U: 56.5
The Falcons are now the football equivalent of the Hare from the Tortoise and the Hare. For the past few years, America has found a common joy in ridiculing the Falcons for their 28-3 collapse in the Super Bowl.
With everything going on in 2020, the choking jokes appeared to have subsided. That appeared to be the case until Week 2, when the Falcons choked in improbably fashion against the Cowboys. Don’t worry, the fun didn’t stop there as the Falcons sought to erase the Cowboys game from memory by blowing a 16-point lead to the Bears a week ago. The Packers, on the other hand, have been destroying teams this season.
Their strength of schedule hasn’t been amazing, but the Packers have taken their 2019 criticism and turned it around (just as the Seahawks have done) and gotten a lot more aggressive offensively early in games. For this matchup, I would normally be all over the Packers.
However, the loss of Allen Lazard and the questionable status of Davante Adams brings into question the Packers’ ability to play as aggressively this time out. I think the Packers win at home, thanks to another meltdown by the Falcons in the fourth quarter.
Packers 30 Falcons 27