Week Two was a solid week overall and went 19-13. Though we missed on a good deal of the spreads, we really hit the over/unders and we got the exact score correct for the Buccaneers and Panthers game (31-17). For all the uncertainty the first few weeks typically gives the betting public, this season has been somewhat straightforward. With Week Two in the books, we’re standing at 36-28 and looking towards another solid week in Week 3.
This week, the games are going to tell us a lot going forward. I definitely don’t feel as confident about these games as I did in Week 2, as there are a number of games with interesting matchups where something has to give.
2020 Regular Season Record: 36-28
A breakdown of Week 3 NFL picks
Here we take a look at all the main NFL Week 3 betting lines from the BetRivers Online Sportsbook. Got a minute? Check out a summary of Collin’s picks below. Got some more time? Read on for Collin’s in-depth analysis for his picks this week:
|Matchup/Line||Collin's Pick||Take With the Spread||Over/Under|
|Bears @ Falcons -3.5 O/U: 47.5 ||Falcons 26 Bears 24||Bears||Over|
|Titans -2.5 @ Vikings O/U: 49.5||Titans 34 Vikings 20||Titans||Over|
|Texans @ Steelers -4 O/U: 45||Steelers 23 Texans 20||Texans||Under|
|Raiders @ Patriots -5.5 O/U: 47||Patriots 31 Raiders 17||Patriots||Over|
|Washington Football Team @ Browns -7.5 O/U: 45||Browns 24 Washington Football Team 20||Washington||Under|
|Rams @ Bills -2.5 O/U: 46.5||Rams 27 Bills 26||Rams||Over|
|49ers -4 @ Giants O/U: 41.5||49ers 23 Giants 14||49ers||Under|
|Bengals @ Eagles -4.5 O/U: 47||Eagles 30 Bengals 26||Bengals||Over|
|Jets @ Colts -11.5 O/U: 44||Colts 33 Jets 13||Colts||Over|
|Panthers @ Chargers -6.5 O/U: 43.5||Chargers 31 Panthers 13||Chargers||Over|
|Cowboys @ Seahawks -5 O/U: 57||Seahawks 34 Cowboys 31||Cowboys||Over|
|Buccaneers -5.5 @ Broncos O/U: 43||Buccaneers 23 Broncos 16||Bucs||Over|
|Lions @ Cardinals -5.5 O/U: 55.5||Cardinals 31 Lions 24||Cardinals||Under|
|Packers @ Saints -3 O/U: 52.5||Packers 24 Saints 23||Packers||Under|
|Chiefs @ Ravens -3.5 O/U: 54||Ravens 34 Chiefs 29||Ravens||Over|
Bears @ Falcons -3.5 O/U: 47.5
The good news for the Falcons this week is that the Bears have a very inconsistent quarterback. The bad news is, the Falcons defense has been getting smoked since the season started. The Falcons defense will be the true question mark this week. I like the Falcons offensive potency, but I also think the Bears defense is being undervalued. If there is no Julio Jones this week, I like the Bears to keep this game close throughout. I think the Falcons will struggle at times against this Bears defense, but again, the big question will be, can the Falcons defense step up against an inconsistent Bears attack.
Falcons 26 Bears 24
Titans -2.5 @ Vikings O/U: 49.5
The Vikings have looked like hot garbage so far this season. Their defense has been their most glaring problem. In fact, it’s been so bad, it’s overshadowed how bad Kirk Cousins was a week ago. The Titans have also been disappointing on defense, but at least their defense has stepped up when they’ve needed it to. This line is a little suspicious, especially given the Vikings results so far, but I’m not buying it.
The Titans are balanced and efficient on offense and that’s what I trust in this matchup. Regardless of how the Titans defense looked last week in a squeaker against the Jaguars, I don’t trust Kirk Cousins and the Vikings overall. I like the Titans to run over the Vikings defense in a clear, impressive offensive game.
Titans 34 Vikings 20
Texans @ Steelers -4 O/U: 45
The Steelers managed to cling to a narrow victory last week in a game they probably should’ve won more comfortably. The Texans appeared to be simply outmatched on both sides of the ball a week ago, losing by three scores to the Ravens. The Texans have a magician at quarterback, who has the ability to extend drives and make fantastic plays. Unfortunately, the Steelers defense is full of playmakers.
For the Steelers offense, they are still dealing with offensive line issues, but there’s a lot to take advantage of in the Texans secondary and I expect Big Ben to do exactly that. I anticipate the Steelers attacking the Texans via quick passes and screens to offset their offensive line woes. I like this one to come down to the wire, but feel good the Steelers can pull this one out.
Steelers 23 Texans 20
Raiders @ Patriots -5.5 O/U: 47
The Raiders have looked really good so far this season. Despite their lack of involvement from their top pick in this year’s draft (Henry Ruggs), this young team has done a lot to improve, especially offensively. The offense looked very impressive against a bad defense in Carolina in Week 1, but looked quite impressive last week against a much better Saints defense for the team’s inaugural game in Las Vegas.
The Patriots are still really good at disguising what their offensive identity is, as Week 1 led us to believe they were prioritized on the run, while Week 2 showed us they are willing to throw the ball a ton. I think the Patriots defense showed us a lot in Week 1, confusing and shutting down the Dolphins offense. Week 2 with Russell Wilson was too much for them, but I like their prospects for slowing down Derek Carr.
It comes down to coaching here for me and I think Belichek will find ways of slowing down this well-balanced Raiders offense. I like the Patriots here to control the Raiders in Week 3.
Patriots 31 Raiders 17
Washington Football Team @ Browns -7.5 O/U: 45
The Browns defense still appears to be a mess. After a Week 1 beatdown at the hands of the Ravens, it seemed like the young Bengals might be just the elixir they needed. We were mistaken to believe it, as the Bengals fought hard until the end, closing the margin to just five and putting up 30 against the Browns. For Washington, the Week 1 win against the Eagles appeared to be sort of a mirage, as they got into a negative game script early and didn’t get much going offensively until it was far too late.
The key here is the Washington defensive line to shut down the Browns strong rushing attack. Washington, even prior to the draft, had a formidable rush defense and the addition of Chase Young has only enhanced that unit. I think if they can hone-in on stopping the run, their defensive line should still be able to pressure and rattle Baker Mayfield.
I like the Browns to be able to keep it close, but I just don’t trust the Washington offense enough.
Browns 24 Washington Football Team 20
Rams @ Bills -2.5 O/U: 46.5
The Bills have been impressive offensively through two weeks. However, their defense, which was among the best in football a season ago, has yet to impress in 2020. Despite a weak pair of early season opponents, they are still favored in this matchup against the Rams.
I don’t quite get it. To me, this is as odd of a line as the Titans and Vikings game, but these types of strange lines also tend to be more right than wrong. Josh Allen is definitely playing amazing football right now, but the Rams have been the more impressive team to me thus far.
I like the Rams offensive scheming and playcalling and think they have a more predictable system in place. I like for this to be a close game, but I like the Rams to pull out a close win on the road this week.
Rams 27 Bills 26
49ers -4 @ Giants O/U: 41.5
The 49ers beat up the Jets a week ago, even without George Kittle. Though they lost Nick Bosa, Tevin Coleman, Jimmy G, and Raheem Mostert during the game, the 49ers’ defense was too much for the jets and their offensive system in place was too difficult to stop.
The Giants lost Saquan Barkley last week and despite the long odds and poor line, Daniel Jones nearly made a miracle happen. The 49ers will be without the aforementioned players again this week, while the Giants lost Barkley for the season and likely won’t have Sterling Shephard available as well. With all this uncertainty, it’s probably wisest to go with the team with a definitive identity. I can’t convince myself to choose the Giants until they can at least prove to me they can successfully rally.
With a bad offensive line, I think we will see the 49ers trample the Giants on both sides of the ball. I don’t think it’s going to be a blowout, but I think the 49ers will comfortably control this game.
49ers 23 Giants 14
Bengals @ Eagles -4.5 O/U: 47
The Bengals aren’t as bad as most expected they would be with such a young quarterback. Alas, the Eagles have been favored against every opponent thus far and have lost decisively in both games.
I don’t trust Carson Wentz right now and though Miles Sanders has a tremendous matchup this week, the Eagles defense is inconsistent, at best. I like for the Bengals to keep pace in this game, rallying late to cover, but falling short to the more experienced, more veteran team in Philadelphia.
I really like the over in this game, so it may be worth it with all the clues pointing to big offensive outputs from both teams.
Eagles 30 Bengals 26
Jets @ Colts -11.5 O/U: 44
The truth of the opening week for the Eagles was that the Eagles broke down. Their offensive line struggled against a solid Washington pass rush, and Carson Wentz took a beating that undoubtedly rattled him in the pocket as the game went on.
I don’t expect quite the same this week, but Aaron Donald is going to disrupt the interior run lanes, as well as the passing game. As for the Rams, the oddsmakers still have their doubts as to the effectiveness of their offensive line. Even though the Eagles will get Lane Johnson and Miles Sanders back this week, I just don’t trust their offense enough, and I think the Rams will exploit the Eagles secondary, which is mediocre, at best.
I like the personnel groupings the Rams utilize and believe in a pandemic season, pre-existing offenses with a lot of mileage have an advantage over the newer offenses, simply due to reps.
Colts 33 Jets 13
Panthers @ Chargers -6.5 O/U: 43.5
This is my favorite spread of the week. The loss of Christian McCaffrey is already big enough, but the unspectacular play of Teddy Bridgewater should not be understated. Through two games, against average defensive units, Bridgewater has failed to rally his team in both games. It’s not necessarily a knock against Teddy B. It’s just two examples of how this team isn’t built for playing from behind.
That’s going to be a big problem for them going forward because their defense is terrible. Last week, the Chargers looked offensively potent for the first time this season. It was a stark contrast to their disappointing effort in Week 1 against the Bengals. Justin Herbert was calm, exhibited poise in the pocket, and made plays with both his feet and arm in a near-upset of the Super Bowl champs. It was even more impressive given the fact Herbert took no first-team reps all week and only found out he would be starting 20 minutes before kickoff. For this game, I like the Chargers secondary against the Panthers outside weapons.
I also like the Chargers offense against this mess of a defense and believe both Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelly will have solid games. I like the Chargers to win this one comfortably and usher in the Justin Herbert era in Los Angeles.
Chargers 31 Panthers 13
Cowboys @ Seahawks -5 O/U: 57
Here we go, folks. This one is shaping up to be another shootout. Both these teams have looked impressive on offense thus far, but both have struggled defensively as well. The Cowboys are going to have their hands full with Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, while the Seahawks are going to have their full stopping this talented trio of receivers and Zeke. I can’t go against Seattle, at home, and with the way the Seahawks are playing offense under Russell Wilson’s new aerial attack.
I know the total points line is high, but I expect these two teams are going to smash it. I like the matchups for both offenses here, but I think we will see Jamal Adams settle-in and make a few big, impactful plays to tilt the outcome in Seattle’s favor.
Seahawks 34 Cowboys 31
Buccaneers -5.5 @ Broncos O/U: 43
The Broncos have hit a bit of bad luck to start the season. In week one, they failed to capitalize on all of the missed field goals from the Titans. Last week, they lost their starting quarterback early in the game against the Steelers. The Broncos lost both by less than a touchdown each, and now they’re in dire straits as Week 3 approaches.
The Bucs looked a lot cleaner this past week against the Panthers than they did in Week 1 against the Saints. It’s clear the offense isn’t quite the high-flying attack it was a season before, but with an improved pass defense and rushing attack, the Bucs are much less volatile than a season ago. Despite the fact Jeff Driskell looked somewhat competent against a great Steelers defense last week, the Bucs have had a week to prepare against Driskell. I expect the success he saw a week ago will be relatively reduced.
When you consider the best receiver on the roster currently is Jerry Jeudy, no offense to Jeudy, but that’s great for opposing defenses. I think the Buccaneers will have a good gameplan for the Broncos and Tom Brady has an array of offensive weapons by which to utilize against a banged-up Broncos defense.
Buccaneers 23 Broncos 16
Lions @ Cardinals -5.5 O/U: 55.5
The Lions haven’t been terrible this season, but they haven’t been good either. I think many expected they could be a potential dark horse to win the division this season, but that seems like a big longshot at this point. The Cardinals have been the surprise story of 2020. Their defense has been the most surprising part of the team thus far, and the offense under Kyler Murray and a true #1 receiver in DeAndre Hopkins has been great. This is one of those games people will expect the Cardinals to handle, and rightly so.
The Cardinals should be able to not only move the ball relatively easily through the air, this may be the week Kenyan Drake gets rolling on the ground too. I like the Cardinals in this game to control the majority of the game, but I expect the Lions will claw back late and make it interesting.
Cardinals 31 Lions 24
Packers @ Saints -3 O/U: 52.5
The Packers have either been playing really impressive football, or they’re just playing bad defenses. Personally, I think it’s both. Either way, it’s been impressive. To be honest, I think it’s more of a mix of both. The Packers offensive line appears to be better than it was a season ago, and it’s translated into more open lanes for the electric Aaron Jones. Jones has not only been a threat on the ground, he’s been serving well as a full-blown receiver. He’s lined up wide and made some impressive catches.
The Saints are coming off a week in which they got out to a fast start against the Raiders, before falling apart both offensively and defensively. I don’t trust the Saints passing attack right now and I think their defense has some issues.
I love the Packers in this matchup, with this spread, because they’ve shown us a lot more in the limited time. Both teams will be without their top receiver in this one, but at least the Packers’ quarterback isn’t regressing at a “final season Peyton Manning” rate.
Packers 24 Saints 23
Chiefs @ Ravens -3.5 O/U: 54
It’s the showdown we were all expecting last postseason before the Titans ruined it for us all. These two teams met early last season, where Mahomes got the best of the Ravens, despite a furious 15 point fourth quarter from the Ravens to close the deficit to five.
I like the Ravens in this one, based on the limited sample of what I’ve seen thus far. Both teams played the Texans and took care of them with little issue, but I like the Ravens defense a lot more than the Chiefs right now. The Chiefs are coming off an exhausting overtime win over the Chargers and Mahomes just didn’t look very good at all.
I love the way the Ravens are playing and think their consistent, run-heavy approach will work well to batter the Chiefs as the game goes along.
Ravens 34 Chiefs 29