Week 15 was a winning week (16-11). We had three pushes, and quite a few double victories (Bears, Ravens, Chiefs, Browns). We were dead-wrong on a few (Steelers, Rams), but we had a solid week overall. For the season now, we are 226-207 (52.19%) and we are getting stronger down the stretch. One important thing to note here is, team motivation is hard to recognize.
We expect certain teams just check out at this time of the year, but last week slapped us in the face for a few of those games, and we should be cautious. With that being said, it’s going to be a difficult week to nail longer parlays, as obvious as some may seem. Cheers to another solid week and may all your parlays and dreams come true.
2020 Regular Season Record: 226-207 (52.19%)
A breakdown of Week 16 NFL picks
Here we take a look at all the main NFL Week 16 betting lines from the BetRivers Online Sportsbook. Got a minute? Check out a summary of Collin’s picks below. Got some more time? Read on for Collin’s in-depth analysis for his picks this week:
|Matchup/Line||Collin's Pick||Take With the Spread||Over/Under|
|Vikings @ Saints -7 O/U: 50.5||Saints 30 Vikings 20||Saints||Under|
|Buccaneers -9.5 @ Lions O/U: 53.5||Buccaneers 37 Lions 21||Bucs||Over|
|49ers @ Cardinals -5 O/U: 48.5||Cardinals 27 49ers 21||Cardinals||Under|
|Dolphins -3 @ Raiders O/U: 47.5||Dolphins 33 Raiders 17||Dolphins||Over|
|Falcons @ Chiefs -10.5 O/U: 54||Chiefs 34 Falcons 24||Falcons||Over|
|Bears -7 @ Jaguars O/U: 47.5||Bears 33 Jaguars 14||Bears||Under|
|Colts -2 @ Steelers O/U: 44.5||Colts 27 Steelers 23||Colts||Under|
|Bengals @ Texans -8.5 O/U: 46||Texans 34 Bengals 27||Bengals||Over|
|Giants @ Ravens -11 O/U: 45||Ravens 30 Giants 14||Ravens||Under|
|Browns -9.5 @ Jets O/U: 47||Browns 38 Jets 16||Browns||Over|
|Broncos @ Chargers -3 O/U: 49||Chargers 27 Broncos 20||Chargers||Under|
|Panthers @ Washington Football Team -2.5 O/U: 44.5||Washington Football Team 23 Panthers 20||Panthers||Under|
|Rams @ Seahawks -1.5 O/U: 47.5||Rams 26 Seahawks 24||Rams||Over|
|Eagles -2 @ Cowboys O/U: 49.5||Eagles 27 Cowboys 24||Eagles||Over|
|Titans @ Packers -3 O/U: 56||Packers 34 Titans 27||Packers||Under|
|Bills -7 @ Patriots O/U: 46||Bills 23 Patriots 20||Patriots||Under|
Vikings @ Saints -7 O/U: 50.5
The Saints are coming off a home loss to the Chiefs. It wasn’t a horrible loss, but the Chiefs appeared to have things in hand in the second half and just played keep away down the stretch. The Vikings have now lost consecutive games, mainly because they get too focused on establishing the run. It’s a team with the best receiver duo in football (quote me on that) and yet they just force feed Dalvin Cook 30-plus times a game.
I like for Brees to have a bounce-back game here. I think the Saints will control the line of scrimmage and the Vikings will struggle to work away from their run-heavy approach. I like the Saints at home in a game that gradually gets away from the Vikings.
Saints 30 Vikings 20
Buccaneers -9.5 @ Lions O/U: 53.5
The Lions have a banged-up roster and now will be without their interim head coach for the game. The Buccaneers are making a push for the playoffs, with an outside shot to still win the division, somehow. It’s likely to not happen, given the Jekyll and Hyde nature of the Buccaneers, but they should be fine in this game. The Lions have been partial to running the ball more, as their passing attack has struggled at times.
Unfortunately, the Bucs are great on rushing defense. I see this as being one of those games that gets away from the Lions. Though they tend to hang around in most games, we could see issues compounded with a new play-caller in there and a streaky Bucs defense.
Buccaneers 37 Lions 21
49ers @ Cardinals -5 O/U: 48.5
The Cardinals shocked the 49ers to open the season. It seemed like a big surprise at the time, but as the season progressed, it made a lot more sense. Now, the 49ers are going in reverse and the Cardinals are back to their potent offensive ways.
Kyler Murray is very difficult to game plan against, and the 49ers are much less intimidating, especially after a beatdown at the hands of the Cowboys. Though it can be difficult to predict the 49ers with Kyle Shanahan at the helm, they’re so depleted of weapons, I can’t imagine him pulling a rabbit out of his hat in this game.
Cardinals 27 49ers 21
Dolphins -3 @ Raiders O/U: 47.5
The Dolphins are picking up steam down the stretch. Following a near comeback victory over the Chiefs, the Dolphins suffocated the offensively challenged Patriots. It was reminiscent of their opening week matchup, but with the tables turned. For the Raiders, their season is slipping away, following losses to both the Colts and Chargers.
They look like a mess defensively and their offense is inconsistent at best. Though the offense can be potent for stretches, the Dolphins have a defense that has stymied some of the best offensive minds in football in 2020. I think the Dolphins are finding themselves on offense and should be able to pick apart this troubled Raiders defense.
Dolphins 33 Raiders 17
Falcons @ Chiefs -10.5 O/U: 54
The Chiefs are the kind of team that plays aggressively for two reasons. They’ll be aggressive when trailing and when the defense does something stupid, like leaving Tyreek Hill in single coverage. Aside from that, the Chiefs typically stick to screens, handoffs from shotgun, and peppering Travis Kelce in the intermediate routes.
When they have a lead, they relax and often let their opponents back into the game. In five of their last six, the Chiefs have failed to cover. Despite the fact the Falcons are banged up, I think they’ll put up a decent fight, because I don’t expect the Chiefs to put away bad teams like we assume they do.
Chiefs 34 Falcons 24
Bears -7 @ Jaguars O/U: 47.5
The Bears are onto something with Trubisky at quarterback. Nick Foles was simply too much of a statue back there, and Trubisky can move the chains with his feet. It’s that simple. The Jaguars are holding a quarterback competition this week, while James Robinson’s status this week is in question with an ankle injury. The Jags are one of those teams who just keeps running the ball even in a negative game script. The problem is, they do it successfully.
What pushes me to the Bears in this game is that Bears defense. I think the Jags are in trouble at quarterback, and the Bears are a hungry team with a solid defense. I expect the defense will get it done for the Bears in this one.
Bears 33 Jaguars 14
Colts -2 @ Steelers O/U: 44.5
The Colts are playing great (winning five of their last six), while the Steelers are on a three-game slide. Earlier in the season, the Colts were experiencing struggles in multiple areas, but Frank Reich has made the proper adjustments, and those issues have been mitigated. The Steelers have failed to make the proper adjustments, as their offense has somehow gotten even more unpredictable each week.
I can’t help but take the Colts here, seeing what they’ve done to find an offensive identity, while the Steelers keep repeating the same things, expecting different results. I like the Colts to win on the road and pull closer to taking the AFC South.
Colts 27 Steelers 23
Bengals @ Texans -8.5 O/U: 46
The Bengals were surprisingly fired up last week against the Steelers. I don’t know if it was a result of it being a rivalry game, or Juju dancing on their logo in pre-game. The Bengals looked like a team on a mission last week. The Texans barely lost to the Colts again. I saw “barely” because they pushed, but the Texans are a bad defensive team wielding a quarterback who is difficult to plan for.
As much as I have been impressed with the way the Texans have hung around in games, I don’t think they should be in a situation where they’re more than a touchdown favorite against anyone. I like the Bengals here to keep this one close on the road.
Texans 34 Bengals 27
Giants @ Ravens -11 O/U: 45
The Giants had been playing good football lately. Well, their defense had been playing good football, while their offense was doing just enough for them to get by. The problem this week is the Ravens and their dynamic offense. It’s not that the Ravens are the same team they were in 2019, it’s that they’re averaging over 40 points over their last three games.
Though the defenses they’ve played haven’t been great, I think back to the Giants early-season meeting with another dynamic rushing offense, the 49ers. In that game, the 49ers ran all over the Giants, as the Giants’ strong defense couldn’t account for all the wrinkles the 49ers threw at them. The Ravens are very similar to me. When you consider the Ravens defense gets exponentially better against bad offenses, this game has all the makings of a blowout.
Ravens 30 Giants 14
Browns -9.5 @ Jets O/U: 47
The Jets are stupid on so many levels. Not only did they fool the world into thinking they were tanking, they screwed their own franchise out of getting the best quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck. It appears the Jets were trying to win this whole time, which makes them seem even more inept as a franchise. Now, the Jets will host the Browns, who appear to be on a mission to improbably win the AFC North.
I love the Browns in moneyline parlays this week. I think the strong performance by the Jets last week was an anomaly, and I expect the Browns will pull away from the Jets in the third quarter in this one. The Browns are just too good upfront. Their matchups in this game are all solid, and Baker Mayfield has been shockingly good the past few games. This offense is in top form and I don’t believe the Jets will be able to hang.
Colts 38 Jets 16
Broncos @ Chargers -3 O/U: 49
The Chargers are somehow pulling out these close games we would typically expect them to choke away. When I look at how the Broncos have been playing as of late, there’s nothing good about them. Their defense has been getting torched, their quarterback can’t put together consecutive decent games, and their identity on offense is a complete mystery.
I think the first meeting between these two was more indicative of how the second meeting will go. The Chargers were up 24-3 in the third quarter, before promptly blowing the lead. I think they get a second crack at it this time around and are able to keep a good enough lead to hold off the Broncos late.
Chargers 27 Broncos 20
Panthers @ Washington Football Team -2.5 O/U: 44.5
The Panthers have been more of a mess than people realize. They have shown they can hang around in games against teams with bad defenses. What they haven’t shown is the ability to stop teams. With the exception of the Lions, they haven’t held a team to less than 23 points in over nine weeks.
Though Washington is no offensive juggernaut, the return of Antonio Gibson and Alex Smith should help with Washington’s offensive consistency. I can see this game going either way, but the loss of Brian Burns and the continued absence of Christian McCaffrey is going to really hinder their offense against such a stout defensive opponent.
Washington Football Team 23 Panthers 20
Rams @ Seahawks -1.5 O/U: 47.5
These divisional games are often so hard to predict. However, you can be sure Sean McVay is going to have his team fired up after losing to the Jets a week prior. The Rams have a solid defense, despite what happened a week ago. Offensively, the Rams should be able to find some schemes to properly attack this Seattle defense.
Even though the Seahawks are home, I expect the lack of impact from the crowd will effectively erase the Seahawks’ home-field advantage. Seattle at home seems like a no-brainer, but in 2020, we’ve come to expect the unexpected. I believe the Rams will steady the ship this week and put themselves back on course for a playoff appearance.
Eagles -2 @ Cowboys O/U: 49.5
The Eagles have been resurrected under Jalen Hurts. Finally, we are seeing the offense look more potent, and Hurts’ ability on the ground has been crucial (since Wentz apparently forgot he could run). The Cowboys have also been playing into form recently, as Andy Dalton and the offense appears to be finally clicking.
Defensively, both these teams still have their issues, but I like Jalen Hurts’ chances against the Cowboys defense more than I like Dalton against the Jets. In divisional games, there’s always a chance we could be way off, but I just like all that Hurts has to offer in what should be a high-scoring game in Dallas.
Eagles 27 Cowboys 24
Titans @ Packers -3 O/U: 56
The Titans are surging, as are the Packers. Both teams have a slew of issues on defense, but the balance of both teams’ offenses has been far too much for opposing teams to handle lately. This is one of those games that could go either way, given the similarities, but it should be very high scoring.
I like the Packers in this game. Even with Aaron Jones questionable and Jamaal Williams out, the Packers have Jhaire Alexander on the outside and a decent pass rush. One thing the Titans have struggled with at times this season has been their ability to protect the quarterback. I expect the Packers to attack early, get out to a lead, and force the Titans to get more one-dimensional in their approach.
Packers 34 Titans 27
Bills -7 @ Patriots O/U: 46
As bad as the Patriots have looked lately, Bill Belichik is a defensive wizard. When he faces one-dimensional teams, he has proven to be very effective. Earlier in the season, the Patriots fumbled away a great opportunity to beat the Bills in Buffalo.
Now, he’s going to get them at home, with a chance to exact revenge and possibly spoil the Bills’ bid for the number two seed in the AFC. I think this game will be close, as I expect a relatively low-scoring game, decided by a field goal in the end.
Bills 23 Patriots 20