Week 14 was a losing week (12-15). We had multiple games that ended up being a push on the points total, but we had a rough weekend. We failed to account for the parity of the league this week. Both the 7.5 point spreads turned out to be traps, as both the Dolphins and the Lions opted to kick field goals at the end of their games, killing us with a backdoor cover.
We began the week 4-10, but made a nice recovery, going 8-5 to finish the week.
2020 Regular Season Record: 210-196 (51.72%)
A breakdown of Week 15 NFL picks
Here we take a look at all the main NFL Week 15 betting lines from the BetRivers Online Sportsbook. Got a minute? Check out a summary of Collin’s picks below. Got some more time? Read on for Collin’s in-depth analysis for his picks this week:
|Matchup/Line||Collin's Pick||Take With the Spread||Over/Under|
|Bills -6 @ Broncos O/U: 50||Bills 30 Broncos 19||Bills||Under|
|Panthers @ Packers -8 O/U: 51.5||Packers 31 Panthers 24||Panthers||Over|
|49ers -3 @ Cowboys O/U: 45||49ers 27 Cowboys 20||49ers||Over|
|Patriots @ Dolphins -1.5 O/U: 41.5||Dolphins 20 Patriots 19||Patriots||Under|
|Bears @ Vikings -3 O/U: 46.5||Vikings 24 Bears 23||Bears||Over|
|Lions @ Titans -11 O/U: 51.5||Titans 31 Lions 23||Lions||Over|
|Jaguars @ Ravens -12.5 O/U: 47.5||Ravens 34 Jaguars 14||Ravens||Over|
|Buccaneers -6 @ Falcons O/U: 49.5||Buccaneers 38 Falcons 14||Bucs||Over|
|Seahawks -6 @ Washington Football Team O/U: 44.5||Seahawks 27 Washington Football Team 17||Seahawks||Under|
|Texans @ Colts -7 O/U: 52.5||Colts 34 Texans 17||Colts||Under|
|Jets @ Rams -16.5 O/U: 44.5||Rams 45 Jets 7||Rams||Over|
|Eagles @ Cardinals -6.5 O/U: 48||Eagles 26 Cardinals 24||Eagles||Over|
|Chiefs -3 @ Saints O/U: 53.5||Chiefs 31 Saints 27||Chiefs||Over|
|Browns -3.5 @ Giants O/U: 46.5||Browns 26 Giants 17||Browns||Under|
|Steelers -12.5 @ Bengals O/U: 40.5||Steelers 35 Bengals 7||Steelers||Over|
Bills -6 @ Broncos O/U: 50
The Bills are cruising, following wins over the Steelers and the 49ers. The Bills have risen to the top over the last seven games, going 6-1 over that stretch. This week, the Bills will face the Broncos, who have been a frisky team who has covered the spread in two of their last three games.
They have an offense that is much more reflective of their opponent, and they are currently razor thin at corner. I like the Bills in this game, as long as they stay aggressive. The Broncos have some playmakers on offense, but the Bills have good corners to counter, and a defense getting stronger and healthier each week.
Bills 30 Broncos 19
Panthers @ Packers -8 O/U: 51.5
The Packers are that team who shows up big one week and goes through the motions the next. The Panthers are coming off a disappointing loss to the Broncos. With Teddy Bridgewater a capable quarterback, and a fairly solid offensive supporting cast, it’s reasonable to expect the Panthers offense to be able to keep up.
Joe Brady is a tremendous coordinator and the Packers have some real issues on the defensive end. I expect this game to be high scoring. I also expect a big day from Rodgers, Adams, and Jones. I like the Packers to win but the Panthers to cover.
Packers 31 Panthers 24
49ers -3 @ Cowboys O/U: 45
The 49ers have a dynamic rushing attack. We say it each week, but every week, the 49ers seem to surprise us. One constant for the 49ers is they perform against ill-disciplined teams. The 49ers may also be getting George Kittle back for the game. Kittle is the kind of player who can drive opposing defenses nuts. With the combination of Kittle and the dynamic rushing attack, I simply don’t see a way the Cowboys will be able to consistently stop the 49ers’ offense.
The Cowboys have looked a little better lately offensively, but their defense is still a problem. Last week’s game against the Bengals wasn’t much more than confirmation the Bengals are just terrible. I am putting my trust in the 49ers this week.
49ers 27 Cowboys 20
Patriots @ Dolphins -1.5 O/U: 41.5
The Patriots are a team who schemes well, but is capped from a talent standpoint. Conversely, the Dolphins are also a strong team from a scheming perspective, but limited more by the youth and inexperience of their quarterback.
Brian Flores knows the Patriots well, and Bill Belichik knows Brian Flores well. This game comes down to the difference in talent. I expect the Dolphins will attempt to try some new things offensively, while the Patriots focus on running the ball and avoiding the Dolphins’ talented corners.
I think both these teams are good defensively and it should keep this game very low scoring. I think the Dolphins will be able to do just enough offensively, and they should be very difficult for the Patriots to score against. I like for the Dolphins to win on a last second field goal in a gritty game.
Dolphins 20 Patriots 19
Bears @ Vikings -3 O/U: 46.5
The Bears were able to get the offense rolling against a poor Texans defense last week. This week, the Bears get the Vikings, fresh off a disappointing game against the Bucs. The Vikings have issues in the kicking game. As insignificant as it may seem, this is pretty huge.
Though the Vikings defense has looked improved, the Bears have figured things out on the ground and Allen Robinson is just impossible to shut down. Even with Mitch back there, Robinson is always a good option in a tight situation. The Vikings have a few advantages in the game. For one, they still have a shot at the playoffs, so they have the motivation edge. However, the Vikings definitely have the better offense weapons between the two.
Given the situations, I lean Vikings in this game, but I think it’s going to be close than this spread indicates. I’m anticipating some retribution this week for Dan Bailey.
Vikings 24 Bears 23
Lions @ Titans -11 O/U: 51.5
The Lions put up a good fight a week ago in the loss against the Packers. The week prior, they upset the Bears. The Titans are a hot/cold team each week, it seems. They dominated the Jaguars a week ago, but the pressure is building for them. For one, their defense has been terrible for most of the season.
Even with Stafford potentially out, Chase Daniel is a decent backup. He’s still going to be able to find both TJ Hockenson and Marvin Jones. I like the Titans to win this game, but I think it’s going to be much closer than many would expect. I think both Derrick Henry and De’Andre Swift will have big games in this one, but the Titans have the playoff and divisional motivation to grab the win.
Titans 31 Lions 23
Jaguars @ Ravens -12.5 O/U: 47.5
The Jaguars aren’t as dead in the water as their record indicates. The Ravens are coming off a big, exhausting win on Monday. Contrary to popular belief, the Ravens defense has been very vulnerable as the season has gone on.
I think James Robinson will have a productive day and the Jaguars will be able to at least pose a threat in the first half. I think the Ravens will pull away in the second half, and position themselves well to secure a playoff spot in the crowded AFC playoff race.
I expect the Ravens will run the ball well and Lamar Jackson will open things up and have his best passing game of the year. This should be one of those games where people will climb back aboard the Lamar Jackson hype train.
Ravens 34 Jaguars 14
Buccaneers -6 @ Falcons O/U: 49.5
The Buccaneers are positioned well to grab a playoff spot. All that stands in their way is the Atlanta Falcons. This week, the Falcons will be without Julio Jones. This is huge, as it doesn’t even need to be stated.
The Falcons blew a chance to win the game last week, which is only surprising because it happened against the Chargers. I love the Buccaneers in this game. The Falcons have a great run defense and the Bucs will be without Ronald Jones (in all likelihood), so expect a big day from Tom Brady and the Bucs passing offense. We’ve seen the Buccaneers completely blow away bad teams and this Falcons secondary and the absence of Julio qualify the Falcons as a bad team. I expect the Buccaneers to boat race the Falcons and pour it on, well into the third quarter.
Buccaneers 38 Falcons 14
Seahawks -6 @ Washington Football Team O/U: 44.5
The Seahawks got a real nice bounce-back game last week against the Jets. It was a pleasant matchup for Russell Wilson and a breathe of fresh air, given their struggles against the Giants a week prior. The good news is, the Washington Football Team have a depleted and fairly impotent offense.
The bad news is, the Washington defense has been tremendous in the second half of the season. The problem is, Dwayne Haskins is starting. The other hesitation with Washington in this game is the Russell Wilson factor. Washington has played four games against true dual threat quarterbacks this season and they are 0-4 in them (Ravens, Cardinals, Giants twice). With a team whose defensive success rests so heavily on pressuring the quarterback, Wilson presents a skillset that will be difficult to contain.
In the games against the Ravens and Cardinals (comparable quarterbacks), Washington averaged 31 points-allowed in both games. As appealing as Washington may seem this week, they aren’t going to be able to shut down Wilson this week, and they aren’t going to be able to keep up with Dwayne Haskins under center. I like the Seahawks here.
Seahawks 27 Washington Football Team 17
Texans @ Colts -7 O/U: 52.5
The Texans were beaten like a drum last week by a solid defense and strong running performance. The lack of a run game and talent on the outside appear to be catching up with them. Meanwhile, the Colts are coming off a big road win in Vegas. The Colts have scored at least 26 points in each of their past five games.
They’re using Jonathan Taylor much more, and their offense is really starting to settle-in. I like for the Colts to come out firing on all cylinders in this game. I expect they’re going to have their way with this weak Texans defense.
Last time around, the Colts had some hitches in the game and the Texans were able to linger around. This time, I expect Frank Reich to hone-in on Romeo Crennel’s game plan this time around. I think the Colts win this one comfortably in round two.
Colts 34 Texans 17
Jets @ Rams -16.5 O/U: 44.5
The Jets are, well, bad. We know this, but they still occasionally show signs of life every once and a while. The Rams are aiming to win the division and will show no mercy in this game.
I think the Rams offense is going to do whatever the hell they want to do in this game. I don’t imagine the Jets are going to be up for it. Even if they are and they’re motivated to not finish 0-16, they’re facing the Rams defense. It’s a recipe for disaster. This game is not going to be worth watching, unless you just like watching a good ol fashioned slaughter.
Rams 45 Jets 7
Eagles @ Cardinals -6.5 O/U: 48
The Eagles could be doing that Eagles thing they do each year, where they play dead in the middle of the season and get hot down the stretch. Sure, they were probably a week or two late on starting Hurts, but now that he’s in, the Eagles are moving the chains and their run game has opened up.
The Cardinals bounced back from a brief slide last week, defeating a hot but offensively challenged Giants team. Regardless of what your opinion on this game is, it should absolutely not be a 6.5 point spread.
There’s a lot of variance with the potential quarterback performances, but these teams are more similar than people want to give them credit for. I think the Eagles will keep it close and I’m calling for the Eagles upset, courtesy of a Jalen Hurts game-winning drive in the end.
Eagles 26 Cardinals 24
Chiefs -3 @ Saints O/U: 53.5
This is the game of the week. It’s a tricky one, but at least we know what we’re going to get with Drew Brees playing now. I think it’s going to be a big issue for the Chiefs. It’s not that Brees is a threat to torch any team downfield anymore, but he’s a better option to force feeding Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas.
The Saints defense may be more overblown than actually are. They’ve looked great since the first month, but their recent opponents haven’t been very good offensively. It’s worth noting the Chiefs have failed to cover in each of their last five games.
That’s noteworthy because Vegas will over-correct once the public takes notice. I’ve also realized the Chiefs tend to play down to their opponent. In a game like this, I think the Chiefs will unleash the dragon, so to speak. I like the Chiefs to figure this out in the second half and pull out the road victory.
Chiefs 31 Saints 27
Browns -3.5 @ Giants O/U: 46.5
The Browns are playing some good football as of late. Even though the Giants defense has been really solid, I’m concerned since they have only played one potent rushing attack the entire season (49ers). In that game, the Giants were completely blown out. The 49ers’ pass rush and rush defense was too much for the Giants to handle.
This week, a comparable opponent (Browns) has the best running back duo in football, and an elite pass rush on defense. I feel like the clock will strike midnight a little early Sunday evening for this Cinderella story, when these two meet in New York. I don’t have faith in the Giants offensively, and even if I did, the Browns have the pass rush to ruin a teams’ hopes through the air.
Browns 26 Giants 17
Steelers -12.5 @ Bengals O/U: 40.5
This game was a boat race the last time they met. In that game, the Steelers put their foot on the gas and didn’t let up until the waning minutes. This time around, the Bengals are significantly weaker on offense, their defense has holes everywhere, and they have no incentive to win.
The Steelers are coming off back-to-back losses and need to win out to preserve a bye. I think the Steelers will try to be less predictable in the game, running the ball more frequently than in their last few games. I believe they’ll lean on the quick passing game when they need to, but a return to a more balanced attack should set them up well for their final few opponents.
If the Steelers can veer slightly off course from the predictable offense they’ve run over the past couple months, they should have no problem in this matchup.
Steelers 35 Bengals 7