This Is The Week To Bet Home Teams And Overs In The NFL

Week 14 NFL Games 2020

Week 13 was a big week (19-11). The crazy part is, we went 11-4 ATS and 8-7 on total points. We got some nice double wins from the Ravens, Colts, Saints, Browns, Jets, Washington, and the Patriots. Our double losses were the Lions, Giants, and Chiefs.

Nothing really to complain about this week, as we got some serious breathing room on the year for our picks. On the season, we are 198-181 (52.24%). This week, there are no more byes on the horizon, so we’re going to have our first full slate since Week 4.

2020 Regular Season Record: 198-181 (52.24%)

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A breakdown of Week 14 NFL picks

Here we take a look at all the main NFL Week 14 betting lines from the BetRivers Online Sportsbook. Got a minute? Check out a summary of Collin’s picks below. Got some more time? Read on for Collin’s in-depth analysis for his picks this week:

Matchup/LineCollin's PickTake With the SpreadOver/Under
Vikings @ Buccaneers -6.5     O/U: 52.5
Buccaneers 34 Vikings 20       BucsOver
Broncos @ Panthers -2.5     O/U: 45.5Panthers 26 Broncos 23PanthersOver
Titans -7.5 @ Jaguars     O/U: 52.5Titans 31 Jaguars 24JaguarsOver
Texans -1.5 @ Bears      O/U: 44.5Bears 27 Texans 20 BearsOver
Cowboys -3.5 @ Bengals      O/U: 42.5Cowboys 23 Bengals 20 BengalsUnder
Chiefs -7.5 @ Dolphins      O/U: 50.5Chiefs 27 Dolphins 17ChiefsUnder
Cardinals -2.5 @ Giants      O/U: 45.5
Giants 23 Cardinals 19    GiantsUnder
Colts -3 @ Raiders       O/U: 51.5Colts 34 Raiders 19ColtsOver
Jets @ Seahawks -13.5       O/U: 47.5Seahawks 30 Jets 17JetsUnder
Washington Football Team @ 49ers -3.5       O/U: 43.5Washington Football Team 23 49ers 19WashingtonUnder
Falcons -2 @ Chargers      O/U: 49Chargers 27 Falcons 24ChargersOver
Packers -7.5 @ Lions     O/U: 55Packers 34 Lions 24     PackersOver
Saints -6.5 @ Eagles       O/U: 45.5Saints 30 Eagles 16SaintsOver
Steelers @ Bills -2.5      O/U: 46.5Bills 26 Steelers 23BillsOver
Ravens -1.5 @ Browns      O/U: 46.5Ravens 27 Browns 24RavensUnder

 

Vikings @ Buccaneers -6.5     O/U: 52.5

If this were early in the season, we’d be talking about a nine-point spread with this game. As it currently stands, this game is expected to be a high-scoring one. The Vikings have holes in their defense similar to that of Philadelphia or Buffalo. As we’re seen in 2020, the games Tom Brady has a big game, it’s usually against a defense with a lot of issues. As for the Buccaneers’ defense, they’ve had two weeks to prepare to face Minnesota at home.

The Vikings are playing well, the defense has improved, and the offense is becoming a potent and balanced attack resembling that of the Titans. Though the Vikings have been on a bit of a streak as of late, winning in five of their last six, only the Packers were a winning team amongst all those opponents. I expect this game will turn out similar to the Falcons vs Vikings game. In that game, the Falcons defense capitalized on turnovers and forced the Vikings into an early negative game script. I expect the Bucs to do something similar in this game to what they did against the Packers, applying pressure early and forcing turnovers and a more pass-heavy approach from the Vikings.

Buccaneers 34 Vikings 20                 

Broncos @ Panthers -2.5     O/U: 45.5

The Panthers are coming off a bye to host the offensively challenged Broncos Sunday at noon. When you look at the Broncos overall this year, they tend to play well against more one-dimensional offenses than balanced offenses. They’ve beaten the Jets, Patriots, Chargers, and Dolphins.

All four of those teams really struggle on one side of the offense. Because the Panthers are more balanced offensively, I think the scoring will be up in this game. Conversely, the Panthers’ defense is in the bottom half on both sides. They are susceptible to surrendering high scoring performances as well. I think the Panthers win this one at home, but the Broncos keep it tight.

Panthers 26 Broncos 23

Titans -7.5 @ Jaguars     O/U: 52.5

The Titans were rolling coming into last week. They had played six tremendous quarters of football going into the Browns game. Then, they got kicked in the face. Even trailing 38-7, the Titans managed to fight their way back into it, closing the score to just one in the end, but the Titans defense was exposed by a strong offensive line, and their inability to get pressure doomed them. The Jaguars have fought tough in most of their games this season. Each week, the Jags are somewhere between 7-13 point dogs, and each week, they seem to cover.

The Jaguars have now covered in five of their last six games. The tricky part about the Jags is that they haven’t played a good defense in any of those covers. That will continue this week as the Jaguars host the Titans. This line has now crept to 7.5, so I like the Jaguars, facing a bad defense, to barely cover in this high-scoring affair.

Titans 31 Jaguars 24

Texans -1.5 @ Bears      O/U: 44.5

Both these teams have had their struggles in 2020. As bad as the Bears have looked lately, they were still a team who won five games prior to this slide. There’s not a lot of positives about either of these teams. The Bears have a pretty good defense and the Texans have Deshaun Watson, who can make magic happen against any defense. This game has some stinker potential, but after what I saw last week against the Colts, I believe Deshaun Watson and the Texans will be putting up some points once again.

The Bears are offensively challenged. However, the Texans have lost some key personnel on defense, and Allen Robinson has a very appealing outside matchup against either Vernon Hargreaves, or Gaines (both rated below 60 by Pro Football Focus). I think this game has both shootout potential and stink potential. As much as I don’t like how the Bears have been playing lately, I think they’ll get a nice boost at home, and the Texans will put too much on Deshaun Watson’s shoulders.

Bears 27 Texans 20 

Cowboys -3.5 @ Bengals      O/U: 42.5

The Cowboys have been terrible over the past few weeks. The Bengals have fallen into an offensive funk. This game should be good for both offenses, as both defenses have struggled over the course of the season. Though the Bengals haven’t been able to do much on the ground in quite some time, the Cowboys are a good opponent to face for a bounce-back performance. On the other side, the Cowboys have been better lately on offense.

This unit finally looks like they’re getting settled-in under Andy Dalton. What we fail to notice about the Cowboys is all the success they’re had just moving the ball each game. Take the Washington game out, and the Cowboys haven’t been awful offensively. I like for the Cowboys to have the advantage on the ground and with offensive personnel overall. I think the Bengals can hang in this one.

Cowboys 23 Bengals 20 

Chiefs -7.5 @ Dolphins      O/U: 50.5

The Chiefs seem to be a bit of a mirage. They’ve failed to cover in each of their past five games. I want to go with the Dolphins here, but I have a problem. The Dolphins have been so poor on offense, even with a heavily flawed defense like Kansas City’s, I don’t trust them enough to stay in this game. I think betting the first half under is the play here. I don’t expect the Chiefs to get too adventurous early, but I do expect a few deep shots to Tyreek to take the top off the defense and free up scape in the intermediate.

I like the Chiefs to win this game because I don’t have any faith in the Dolphins offense. I also think, in the Dolphins victories, they’ve yet to face an offense who challenges their defense in as many ways as the Chiefs do. I think the Chiefs will be too much for the Dolphins and the Dolphins simply won’t be able to keep pace.

Chiefs 27 Dolphins 17      

Cardinals -2.5 @ Giants      O/U: 45.5

The Giants have quietly been playing solid football over the last five games. They’re 4-1 over that span, with their only loss being two points against the Buccaneers. Last week, the Giants played a Seahawks team very similar to the Cardinals, and were able to quell Russell Wilson. This week, the Giants get a similar, less potent quarterback with Kyler Murray. Murray has been banged-up and the run game has looked much less effective lately. One worrisome bit about this game is the spread.

I have no idea why the Cardinals are favored here. When this happens, I’ve noticed the team favored actually wins more frequently than I would expect. However, I simply can’t find enough reasons, or one, that would allow me to consider picking the Cardinals in this game.

Giants 23 Cardinals 19

Colts -3 @ Raiders       O/U: 51.5

The Raiders are coming off a very fortunate win over the Jets. The Colts are fresh off a narrow victory against the Texans. I’ve been fairly accurate with Raiders games in 2020 and I feel a little conflicted with this one. On the one hand, the Raiders haven’t looked great the past week against both the Falcons and the Jets. On the other hand, this team has shown up well in games like Denver and Kansas City. My concern here is with Derek Carr, the potential absence of Josh Jacobs, and the Colts defense.

I think the Colts will have an easier go of things against a soft defense. Even with the Raiders getting starters back, they were embarrassed on the ground against the Jets. I believe the sledding will be a lot tougher for the Raiders on offense. I like the Colts to boat race the Raiders in this game.

Colts 34 Raiders 19

Jets @ Seahawks -13.5       O/U: 47.5

The Jets came surprisingly close to upsetting the Raiders last week. This week, they’ll be playing against a Seahawks team who was shut down against the Giants. I don’t expect this game will be very close, as Russell Wilson has a nice bounce-back opportunity against a soft secondary. Given what we saw last week with how badly the Seahawks run defense performed against the Giants, I expect the Jets will have decent success on the ground.

I don’t see the Jets completely quitting in this game, so I expect we may be in for a nice backdoor cover. Also, monitor the weather. There’s supposed to be a lot of rain in Seattle Sunday, which may end up hindering the Seahawks through the air.

Seahawks 30 Jets 17

Washington Football Team @ 49ers -3.5       O/U: 43.5

Washington just knocked off the NFL’s top team last week. I said it was possible and believed Washington was going to cover, but the upset was a bit of a surprise. Washington’s pass rush and overall defense has been impressive lately. On the season, they’ve been solid overall, but last week showed many of us why they’re a team who should be viewed as the favorite to come out of the NFC East. The 49ers completely collapsed last week against Buffalo.

It was a deflating performance from what has looked like a promising team at times this season. With playoff hopes slim and the prospect of facing a very good defense, I like for Washington to pull off the road upset and position themselves well to take the division. After all, Washington has a lot to play for now with the division title in view.

Washington Football Team 23 49ers 19

Falcons -2 @ Chargers      O/U: 49

Both these teams are very frustrating to gauge. For the Chargers, many sharp bettors leaned their direction last week in a landslide loss. It was the worst loss of 2020 for any team. Now, they’re officially out of the playoff race, their quarterback is licking his wounds after a horrifying performance against the best coach who’s ever lived. The Falcons are out of the playoff race as well, but they’re fresh off a close game against the Saints, following a beatdown they imposed on the Raiders.

The Falcons are playing well, their defense has looked better lately, and the same can’t be said for their opponent. Unfortunately, the NFL is all about matchups. This matchup is golden for the Chargers. Their secondary matches up well with the Falcons’ receivers, while their receivers matchup well with the Falcons’ secondary. The Falcons’ strength is their rush defense, while the Chargers don’t necessarily run the ball a whole lot. This game is primed for a Chargers upset. There’s no Julio Jones and a limited Todd Gurley., so here I go again, putting faith in the Chargers to cover.

Chargers 27 Falcons 24

Packers -7.5 @ Lions     O/U: 55

The Packers are back in good form, or are they? I feel like they nearly blew a nice lead last week against a terrible Eagles team. In fact, they did. Had it not been for a long Aaron Jones score at the end of the game, the Packers would’ve failed to cover. The Lions came out motivated and hungry last week, even with Swift and Golladay out. The Lions will have Swift back this week, but his workload should be very limited, given the nature of his head injury.

This spread is begging for action on the Lions, but I really struggle here to understand why. Yeah, they had a good week last week, but this offense is missing a huge key player and I think even with a pumped-up team without Matt Patricia. This spread is just begging to be bet on the Lions. I think this is a bit of a ploy and I don’t trust it.

Packers 34 Lions 24

Saints -6.5 @ Eagles       O/U: 45.5

I want to start out by saying, Hurts will be better than Wentz would in this game. However, I don’t think Hurts is a good long-term choice for the franchise. He was benched for Tua for simply not being productive and potent enough at Alabama. He then went to Oklahoma and failed to win a Heisman (which is actually impressive nowadays). Hurts never really looked great in college. He reminds me a lot of Tee Martin back on the 1998 Tennessee Vols teams.

He was mobile enough, made good decisions, but ultimately didn’t have the arm talent or accuracy to be a decent NFL starter. For this game, this is the wrong team to try to break in a new quarterback against. The great unknown here is how the Eagles will respond to Jalen Hurts behind center. Will they be more motivated? Will they put more effort into the game overall? Will any of it matter against the Saints? I think the third question is the most important, and I believe the Saints are just a far superior team. Even with a limited offense, the Saints shouldn’t have too much trouble stopping Hurts, getting pressure on him, and moving the ball against this poor rushing defense.

Saints 30 Eagles 16

Steelers @ Bills -2.5      O/U: 46.5

The Steelers have seen perhaps the weakest stretch of passing quarterbacks over the past six games of any other team in the NFL. The problem for them this week is that they may be emotionally ready for the game, but they won’t be ready for what Josh Allen is going to be bringing. Allen has surpassed all expectations in his third season. His accuracy has improved, his workload has increased, and Allen has the Bills atop the AFC East. The Bills are surging after an incredible performance against the 49ers on the road.

Both teams are coming off a slightly short week, but the Steelers are going to now be without Robert Spillane at linebacker. They’re already weak at the position, and I think the Bills have a real opportunity to impress the country with a big home win. Though I think the Steelers pass rush will be in full force, I think the Bills have enough to take care of the slumping Steelers at home this week.

Bills 26 Steelers 23

Ravens -1.5 @ Browns      O/U: 46.5

In their first meeting, the Ravens completely annihilated the Browns. This time around, the Ravens suddenly seem very mediocre, while the Browns have looked like a real AFC contender as of late. It’s quite a matchup theme of “what have you done for me lately”. There’s no doubt the Browns have gelled more offensively. Think back to the Titans a year ago and how it took them half a season to get things together. With no preseason this year, a new coach, and an offensive line of new faces. Margins are small in the NFL.

The slightest improvement in protection can mean a lot, especially to a quarterback like Baker Mayfield. Despite the current form of both teams, it’s hard to ignore the first matchup between these two teams. Even without OBJ, the Browns are cruising on offense. It’s hard to imagine this game going the same way as the first, but I do think the Ravens hold a mental edge in that sense. I think the Ravens are the more desperate team here. I like for them to leave Cleveland with a close victory.

Ravens 27 Browns 24

 

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Author: Collin Hulbert