Week 11 was a wash week (14-14 record on the week), although we are still 162-155 on the season, so things are still going smoothly.
Our double victories for the week were the Seahawks, Titans, and Panthers. We counted the Panthers game as a double victory because the total points were released shortly after publication, and we had the final score four points under the line of 47.
The oddsmakers continue to be savvy against the public, as the season approaches the final stretch. Frankly, if you go by the conventional thought of, “bet the under in bad weather and bet the over for everything else,” you’d be having a decent season. Following a big week for the home teams, it’s time to bet against the pendulum swing this week and go with a lot of road teams.
This week, we have more fun games scheduled, so without further adieu, let’s get to the Week 12 picks.
2020 Regular Season Record: 162-155 (51.1%)
A breakdown of Week 12 NFL picks
Here we take a look at all the main NFL Week 12 betting lines from the BetRivers Online Sportsbook. Got a minute? Check out a summary of Collin’s picks below. Got some more time? Read on for Collin’s in-depth analysis for his picks this week:
|Matchup/Line||Collin's Pick||Take With the Spread||Over/Under|
|Chargers @ Bills -5 O/U: 53 ||Bills 27 Chargers 24||Chargers||Under|
|Cardinals @ Patriots -1.5 O/U: 49.5||Patriots 26 Cardinals 23||Patriots||Under|
|Panthers @ Vikings -3.5 O/U: 51.5||Panthers 24 Vikings 20||Panthers||Under|
|Raiders -3 @ Falcons O/U: 54||Raiders 34 Falcons 27||Raiders||Under|
|Browns -6 @ Jaguars O/U: 49||Browns 31 Jaguars 17||Browns||Under|
|Titans @ Colts -3 O/U: 51.5||Colts 27 Titans 23||Colts||Under|
|Giants -6 @ Bengals O/U: 44||Giants 31 Bengals 14||Giants||Over|
|Dolphins -7 @ Jets O/U: 44||Dolphins 29 Jets 10||Dolphins||Under|
|49ers @ Rams -6.5 O/U: 45||Rams 27 49ers 17||Rams||Under|
|Saints -6 @ Broncos O/U: 43||Saints 23 Broncos 16||Saints||Under|
|Chiefs -3.5 @ Buccaneers O/U: 56||Chiefs 34 Buccaneers 31||Bucs||Over|
|Bears @ Packers -9 O/U: 44.5||Packers 26 Bears 23||Bears||Over|
|Seahawks -5 @ Eagles O/U: 50||Seahawks 34 Eagles 24||Seahawks||Over|
Chargers @ Bills -5 O/U: 53
The Chargers have been a massive disappointment in 2020. Injuries to key players prior to the season really sealed their doom, as the Chargers have been just 2-7 this season in one-score games. The Bills have a prolific passing offense and a bad rush defense. The Bills have the same, but at least the Bills have shown some flashes in pass defense at times this season.
I do expect more rushing from both sides than we typically see, given the playmakers at corner for both teams. This is a tricky line, but I trust Buffalo a lot more than the Chargers, especially considering the position the Bills are in within their division. I expect this will be one of the more entertaining games of the weekend.
The weather Sunday should be fine in Buffalo, so no abnormalities in this game. I like for this game to stay pretty close since the Chargers have been so proficient in passing the ball. Even in a negative game script, I like the Chargers here to cover.
Bills 27 Chargers 24
Cardinals @ Patriots -1.5 O/U: 49.5
There is no denying the talent of Kyler Murray. Not only is he a talented, elusive quarterback, but his improvisational skills are also terrific. Even the very best coaches can look bad when they face a guy like Kyler Murray.
In considering this game, I went back to the Week 3 Cardinals vs Lions game. As bad as the Lions have been this season, Matt Patricia (a Belichik disciple) was able to contain Kyler Murray, limiting him to just five carries and 29 yards rushing. Murray also had three interceptions in the game, a season-high.
I think the Patriots will craft a defensive plan similar to the Lions from Week 3. If there’s one coach out there who can slow down Murray. On the other side of the ball, the Patriots have a fairly solid rush defense and an adequate pass defense.
Offensively, the Patriots can move the ball well on the ground, but Cam Newton has struggled over the course of the season through the air. The matchup and coaching edge is enough for me to go with the home team in this one.
Patriots 26 Cardinals 23
Panthers @ Vikings -3.5 O/U: 51.5
For a while, the Vikings looked really bad. After the first month, the Vikings began to turn things around. Just as bettors were warming to the idea of the Vikings as a decent team, they were beaten last week by the same Cowboys team who just got thumped at home by the Washington Football Team.
The NFL is a wild and crazy place. As such, the Vikings are as unpredictable as any team in the NFL. The Panthers have been easier to predict, but even with this being a pretty even matchup, the Panthers will be without Christian McCaffrey and the Vikings will be without Adam Thielen.
The Panthers have won plenty without McCaffrey, but the Vikings have yet to be without the service of Thielen. Without the safety valve and go-to man in the passing game, I think the Vikings will be a little too one dimensional. I like the Panthers here to get a big win on the road and keep their playoff hopes alive.
Panthers 24 Vikings 20
Raiders -3 @ Falcons O/U: 54
The Falcons will be without the services of Todd Gurley, which isn’t a big of a loss as it might seem. Gurley’s effectiveness this season has been red zone focused. He’s been fine for them on the season, but his replacements should mimic the production between the twenties.
The Raiders are keen on running the ball, which could be a problem against the Falcons run defense. Luckily, the Falcons struggle against the pass. Derek Carr has appeared to have taken a step this season in the right direction. His average depth of target has increased since a season ago, courtesy of additional offensive weapons at his disposal.
I like the Raiders in this game. They’re coming off a narrow loss and are fighting for a playoff spot. Both these defenses have weaknesses, but I trust the Raiders a lot more from what I’ve seen from them this season. I believe we are in for a solid performance from Carr and the Raiders on the road in a shootout.
Raiders 34 Falcons 27
Browns -6 @ Jaguars O/U: 49
The Browns have shown flashes on both sides of the ball this season. Last week, even without Myles Garrett, the Browns defense destroyed the Eagles offensive line and drove Carson Wentz mad behind center. The Browns sacked Wentz four times and forced two interceptions. Though the topic of discussion recently has been focused on the Browns defense, the Browns passing attack has been limited, due to a combination of weather and game script.
This week’s matchup against the Jaguars may just have a similar result. The Browns have perhaps the best rushing attack in the NFL. The Jaguars are bad against both the run and the pass. With the prospect of Mike Glennon starting at quarterback, the Browns are in a great spot this week on the road.
Browns 31 Jaguars 17
Titans @ Colts -3 O/U: 51.5
The last time these two played, the Titans were seemingly in control, before their special teams failed in spectacular fashion and blew the game for them. This time around, we have a better idea of what the Colts are. They’re a team with a solid defense who moves the ball offensively through screens and a balanced rushing attack.
The Titans are still the same team we make adamant judgment calls about each week. One week, they’re a horrible defensive team who can’t exploit a solid opposing defense, while the next week they’re a dangerous team who can overcome large deficits. This time around, I don’t expect the Colts to get so lucky on special teams. This will be one of the more volatile matchups of the week. I’m going to go with the team who’s had the other’s number the past few seasons.
Colts 27 Titans 23
Giants -6 @ Bengals O/U: 44
The Giants are a team we’ve spoken highly of over the last few weeks. They’re winners in three of their past five. The defense looks decent, the offense is figuring things out, and their opponent has just been dealt a serious blow.
The Bengals are going to be without Joe Burrow, following a gruesome knee injury suffered last week against the Washington Football Team. The Bengals are still without Joe Mixon at running back, and their defense is still terrible. I think the Giants will win this one in what might end up being their only real lopsided victory of the 2020 season.
Giants 31 Bengals 14
Dolphins -7 @ Jets O/U: 44
The Dolphins are on a collision course with the Buffalo Bills for the division title in their Week 17 matchup. Until then, the Dolphins will enjoy a pretty comfy schedule along the way. Until then, the Dolphins must focus and get by the Jets, who have been a little more frisky lately.
The Dolphins are already down a Salvon Ahmed at running back and could possibly be platooning Patrick Laird and DeAndre Washington. They may even employ Malcolm Perry a little more. Myles Gaskin is questionable for the game, but he would be in line for a majority of the carries if he suits up to play.
I like the Dolphins for this game. Even without a few key players, the Dolphins defense has been both solid and opportunistic.
Dolphins 29 Jets 10
49ers @ Rams -6.5 O/U: 45
The last time these two teams played, there was a trap-game feel to it. We correctly predicted that the 49ers would upset the Rams and they did. This time around, I feel a little differently, as the 49ers are more injured and the Rams are looking more like the team everyone respected a few seasons ago.
I like the Rams in this game, specifically their defense. I think the defense will set the tone while the offense gets their choice as to how they want to attack the 49ers. I like the Rams to win this revenge game.
Rams 27 49ers 17
Saints -6 @ Broncos O/U: 43
The Saints are coming off an impressive home win against the Falcons in a way no one thought possible. Taysom Hill was made out to look like a hybrid of Tim Tebow and Cam Newton last week, throwing short routes and pounding it in on the ground when they got close.
The Broncos should have a good amount of film now to work with. Even with more film on Taysom Hill, nobody is talking about how well the Saints defense is playing. The Saints are motivated to win the division and secure home field for the playoffs, even with Drew Brees out. Michael Thomas is back, Kamara is healthy, and Emmanuel Sanders looked great last week. I like the Saints to win and cover on the road.
Saints 23 Broncos 16
Chiefs -3.5 @ Buccaneers O/U: 56
The Chiefs are playing some incredible football at the moment. Defensively, they do seem to disappear some weeks. Offensively, they put up big numbers each week, no matter who their opponent is. For the Buccaneers, it seems to be much the same. Some weeks, the Buccaneers look like offensive juggernauts and others, they look pretty unspectacular.
I don’t think the Chiefs, who struggled stopping Derek Carr last week, have the personnel to slow down the Buccaneers’ offense. For that reason, I think this game becomes a shootout.
Whenever I expect a game to go to a shootout, I tend to expect it’s going to be decided by a field goal in the end and that’s where I am with this one. The Bucs desperately need a win to stay in the race in the NFC South.
Chiefs 34 Buccaneers 31
Bears @ Packers -9 O/U: 44.5
The Bears are a mess on offense. As much as it pains me to say it, I think the Bears will get a boost in offense with Mitch Trubisky at the helm. David Montgomery is set to return this week, so the offense may actually feel a lot closer to the unit we saw early in the season instead of the hopeless group we’ve seen in recent weeks.
The Packers are coming off a close road loss at Indianapolis and need to bounce back to get one step closer to securing a division title. Even with the spread so high against a great Bears defense, it’s hard to justify taking the Bears here.
The Bears have only lost one game this season by more than eight points and they are in desperation-mode as well. I like for the Bears to keep it close but ultimately lose at Lambeau.
Packers 26 Bears 23
Seahawks -5 @ Eagles O/U: 50
The Seahawks are an offensive juggernaut. They’re top five in most major offensive categories and will get to face the Eagles. The Eagles have been known to stay in games they have no business staying in and lose games they have no business losing, but this is a matchup nightmare for the Eagles.
Carson Wentz is playing awful football right now and the Eagles won’t be able to do enough to hang in this game. Though I think the Eagles have some nice matchups offensively, I simply don’t see them consistently scoring at a rate to hang in this game and keep it close.
Seahawks 34 Eagles 24