Week 10 broke our streak of four straight winning weeks (13-14 this week) and personally, I think we got hosed.
For one, we had the Browns covering by 3.5 and they won by three, thanks to Nick Chubb going out of bounds at the one, on a breakaway run, when a touchdown would’ve put them up nine and not threatened the outcome, at all. The Browns were covering for 90 percent of the game, but that’s how it goes sometimes.
The second hosing was the Arizona game. Sure, the Hail Mary was fortunate, but the Cardinals were 2.5-point favorites and elected not to kick the extra point to go up three with two seconds left. I get there’s a .02 percent chance the other team blocks it and returns it for a score, but come on.
We went 13-14 on the week thanks to the 0-2 start on Thursday. I know the Thursday game wasn’t in the article, but when they get published after Thursday, there’s no reason to keep them up. Honesty is the best policy, though, and I had the Titans and the under in that one, so that loss counts.
This week, we have more fun games scheduled, so without further adieu, let’s get to the Week 11 picks.
2020 Regular Season Record: 148-141 (51.2%)
A breakdown of Week 11 NFL picks
Here we take a look at all the main NFL Week 11 betting lines from the BetRivers Online Sportsbook. Got a minute? Check out a summary of Collin’s picks below. Got some more time? Read on for Collin’s in-depth analysis for his picks this week:
|Matchup/Line||Collin's Pick||Take With the Spread||Over/Under|
|Steelers -10 @ Jaguars O/U: 46.5 ||Steelers 38 Jaguars 10||Steelers||Over|
|Falcons @ Saints -4 O/U: 51||Saints 24 Falcons 23||Falcons||Under|
|Titans @ Ravens -6.5 O/U: 49||Ravens 27 Titans 23||Titans||Over|
|Patriots -2 @ Texans O/U: 48.5||Patriots 27 Texans 24||Patriots||Over|
|Bengals @ Washington Football Team -1 O/U: 46.5||Washington Football Team 27 Bengals 25||Washington||Over|
|Lions @ Panthers -1.5 O/U: N/A||Panthers 23 Lions 20||Panthers||N/A|
|Eagles @ Browns -3 O/U: 47||Browns 27 Eagles 23||Browns||Over|
|Jets @ Chargers -9.5 O/U: 46||Chargers 35 Jets 17||Chargers||Over|
|Dolphins -4 @ Broncos O/U: 45||Dolphins 27 Broncos 13||Dolphins||Under|
|Cowboys @ Vikings -7 O/U: 48||Vikings 30 Cowboys 17||Vikings||Under|
|Packers @ Colts -1.5 O/U: 51||Colts 27 Packers 23||Colts||Under|
|Chiefs -8 @ Raiders O/U: 56.5||Chiefs 41 Raiders 24||Chiefs||Over|
|Rams @ Buccaneers -4 O/U: 48.5||Buccaneers 27 Rams 20||Bucs||Under|
Steelers -10 @ Jaguars O/U: 46.5
The Steelers finally had a game indicative of their perfect record. Though many teams have looked impressive against the Bengals, the Steelers had their way through the air, despite not being good on the ground.
This week, the Steelers will face the Jaguars, who have been a very worthy opponent in their last two games. Since Jake Luton took over at quarterback two weeks ago, the Jags have covered against both the Texans and on the road last week in Green Bay. The Steelers finally popped in the passing game like we thought they had the potential to.
Though the Steelers haven’t been providing good rush lanes lately, their strength is the short passing game, and the Jaguars are 31st in DVOA. Expect the Jags to work hard to establish the run game, but I think things will snowball for the Jaguars, as the Steelers won’t have much trouble dissecting the Jaguars’ pass defense.
Steelers 38 Jaguars 10
Falcons @ Saints -4 O/U: 51
The Falcons are coming off a bye, while the Saints are coming off another relatively easy cover. The big question in this game is what are we going to see from Taysom Hill and Jameis Winston. My heart yearns for the high-flying, dangerous Jameis, but my head is telling me that will not be happening.
The Saints just named Hill as the starter, so we can expect more gadgetry throughout the game. The Saints are five-point favorites in a game expected to be high scoring (51-point total). I think the Saints defense is coming together, while the Saints’ offense is a massive question mark.
I like the under in this game where there should be plenty of hurdles for both teams. As for the game itself, this one is a total crapshoot to predict, given the circumstances. Let’s go Falcons to cover, but the confidence level is low.
Saints 24 Falcons 23
Titans @ Ravens -6.5 O/U: 49
Both these teams have not looked good recently. The Ravens defense is the sole unit here that’s been solid, but even they were not especially impressive last week against the Patriots limited offense. There’s a revenge game factor here, following the Divisional round game from last season, but it’s a different season.
The Ravens look like a C- version of their team from a year ago, and they’re still a pretty good team. The Titans also look like a C- version of their team from last season. Both teams are down in efficiency, and both are struggling in the passing game. I initially liked the Titans when this line came out, but now I’m not as confident.
I expect the Ravens defense to come up with one big play to turn the momentum, but it won’t be enough to put the Titans away. I still like the Titans to cover, but barely. I think Derrick Henry will be a tall task for the Ravens, especially after last week’s exposure. I also have more faith in the Titans to mess with Lamar Jackson’s head more than it’s currently being meddled with.
Ravens 27 Titans 23
Patriots -2 @ Texans O/U: 48.5
The Patriots have a good matchup here for their unimpressive offense. They have some momentum now and a shot at the playoffs. This game is also Romeo Crennell against Bill Belichik, so temper your expectations. The Texans have a tremendous quarterback and easily the most important variable in this game.
I expect Watson to make his typical Watson plays and expect the Patriots will have some relative success moving the ball on the Texans and their bad defense. Honestly, I’m still not sold on the Patriots offensively, but I think Jakobi Meyers has emerged as a decent option for Cam, and I think Damien Harris is pretty good. I have to lean on the more sure thing offensively, with more defensive upside. I’m going Patriots here in a close one on the road.
Patriots 27 Texans 24
Bengals @ Washington Football Team -1 O/U: 46.5
The Bengals are a mess defensively. They are a train wreck and not even the prospect of facing Alex Smith is appealing enough for me to have faith in them in this game. Though the Bengals offensive line appears to be improving, the Washington Football Team has a good pass rush that should give him trouble. On the other side of the ball, Washington should be able to throw the ball pretty efficiently.
The Bengals are 9th worst against fantasy running backs and 9th worst allowing receiving touchdowns to opposing running backs (4 TD surrendered). We know Alex Smith likes to dump the ball off to his backs and tight ends, so this is going to be a problem for the Bengals, even if Smith doesn’t go downfield much. I like the Washington Football team in this game to win outright and put themselves into the temporary lead in the NFC East.
Washington Football Team 27 Bengals 25
Lions @ Panthers -1.5 O/U: N/A
First off, I’m going Panthers here, just so we’re clear. The Lions are dealing with a number of issues between Swift, Golladay, and Amendola. None of the three practiced Friday, so even with the prospect of the Panthers starting JP Walker or Will Grier. I think Matt Rhule is a good coach who will be able to get the most out of whoever is out there.
I expect a lot of gadgetry from the Panthers, as the Panthers have both Curtis Samuel and DJ Moore to utilize as runners and great YAC guys. The Panthers are going to lean on their personnel’s strengths, unlike the Lions. The Lions are so poorly coached, it took them nine weeks to realize D’Andre Swift was better than 36-year-old Adrian Peterson. I think the Lions, despite better play as of late, will be in for a long day of relying on guys like Marvin Hall to get it done through the air.
Panthers 23 Lions 20
Eagles @ Browns -3 O/U: 47
The Eagles are indeed the roller coaster team we’ve experienced for the past few seasons. With injuries and a thin roster no longer a talking point for Carson Wentz’s struggles, the Eagles are at a critical point in the season to hold on to their slim divisional lead. One could make a case the Eagles need this game more than the Browns, but the Browns are just as likely to come out motivated and hungry for victory.
The Browns are on the edge of the playoff race and need to win the games they’re expected to. Prior to Friday, I was high on the Browns in this game, picking them to win by ten in another article. However, the Browns just reported they added Myles Garrett to the Covid list, so losing a DPOY candidate is absolutely going to be a major loss for them in this game.
Without Garrett, I still give the advantage to the Browns, but the margin has shrunk significantly. Without the expectation of consistent pressure on Wentz, it’s going to give the Eagles a lot more opportunities to throw the ball downfield. I think this game ends a lot closer than we expected before. I still like the Browns, but only by a smidge.
Browns 27 Eagles 23
Jets @ Chargers -9.5 O/U: 46
I originally had the Dolphins winning and covering last week against the Chargers, but the late week action and potential loss of Kyle Van Nooy put me on the Chargers late. This week, I’m all-in on the Chargers. The Chargers are really good at losing close games. However, the Jets are even better at losing games, whether it be close ones or just good ol fashion blowouts.
With the Jets among the league-worst in DVOA and just awful (29th) in passing yards allowed per game. What’s even more impressive about their pass defense is that in many of the Jets games, their opponent has abandoned throwing the ball for much of the second half, due to a positive game script.
The Chargers coach, Anthony Lynn, is on the hot seat. It’s been reported on more than a few sites Lynn could be out if the Chargers lose again. The Jets aren’t bad against the run. Their DVOA is actually top ten against the run. The Chargers don’t really run unless they’re up by a lot, so I expect Lynn to have the Chargers going all-out and expect a big day from Herbert, Mike Williams, and maybe even Jalen Guyton.
Chargers 35 Jets 17
Dolphins -4 @ Broncos O/U: 45
The Dolphins just keep winning. Last week, the Dolphins were again driven by a fantastic defensive performance. The Broncos have been down by at least three scores in four straight weeks or something silly like that. They are, frankly, a bad team. Any semblance of hope for a promising season was snuffed out last week by the Raiders in a blowout loss.
The Broncos have many questions at quarterback, but another question about him this week is his health. Lock is dealing with a rib injury that puts his status into question heading into Sunday’s game. Regardless of Lock’s status, I don’t think the Broncos will have enough in this one to come away victorious. I don’t think Drew Lock’s backups are much of a downgrade, but they are going to have issues moving the ball against this solid Dolphins defense.
I expect the Dolphins will focus on stopping the run, leaving Byron Jones and Xavien Howard alone to challenge the Broncos receivers outside.
Dolphins 27 Broncos 13
Cowboys @ Vikings -7 O/U: 48
We’ve joked about the Cowboys a lot over the past few weeks, but they haven’t been completely terrible on defense lately. Last week, the Cowboys were on a bye. The week prior, the Cowboys did a good job slowing the Steelers run and coming up big on third down (in the first half). This week, the Cowboys will be facing a rushing offense unlike anything they’ve faced in 2020 (except for the Browns).
The Cowboys are second in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game. Against the Eagles and Steelers, the Cowboys ceded coverage deep to support the run. It only really bit them in the second half of the Steelers game, as Carson Wentz was just awful in the Eagles game.
This week, they can’t afford to do that with Thielen and Jefferson lining up outside. The Vikings love to run the ball, but they can also take advantage of weak coverages. I think the Cowboys, even with Dalton back, will have a hard time moving the ball against this improved Vikings defense. It won’t be especially tough sledding, but the Vikings offense should drag them across the finish line once again.
Vikings 30 Cowboys 17
Packers @ Colts -1.5 O/U: 51
We have some injury concerns in this game for the Packers with Davante Adams questionable with an ankle injury. The Packers have been a difficult team to predict in 2020. We did pick the Buccaneers to beat them a few weeks back and we also correctly predicted they would handle the 49ers. However, we loved the Packers last week and they laid an egg for three quarters against a terrible Jaguars team.
The Colts are in the same boat as a team who is hard to make a reasonable conclusion about. The Colts are a very matchup-dependent team. The Colts, this season, have beaten very bad pass defenses all season. Now, the Packers have a decent pass defense, but their run defense is terrible.
I expect we’ll see a hot-hand approach from the Colts backfield splits, because that’s what Frank Reich does. I think this will be a game we see Aaron Rodgers really putting it into high gear. I think a shootout may be out of the cards, but I expect a close and competitive game.
The total points line is a bit terrifying, but the one factor I don’t like in this game is Phil Rivers. I get he’s coming off a solid game, but I don’t know if I trust him to exploit a good pass defense. The Packers rank 31st defending receptions by running backs out of the backfield. This game is going to be very close. Avoid it if you can.
Colts 27 Packers 23
Chiefs -8 @ Raiders O/U: 56.5
The Chiefs are going to kick the crap out of the Raiders this week. I’m calling my shot now. This is my pick of the week and here’s why.
For one, the Chiefs completely underestimated the Raiders in the first game. The Raiders went a little out of character and threw the ball deep, attacking the Chiefs’ secondary relentlessly. After the game, the Raiders did a little too much secondary and Andy Reid has now mentioned multiple times the Chiefs didn’t appreciate it. I think that’s going to motivate the Chiefs to beat the brakes off the Raiders, scoring as much as they possibly can in this game.
I think the Raiders have been playing well and seem to have found some balance on offense. The Raiders’ backfield appears heathy and potent once again, but that’s not going to be enough to keep up with the Chiefs.
Chiefs 41 Raiders 24
Rams @ Buccaneers -4 O/U: 48.5
The Rams have a problem in this game. They will be without key offensive lineman, Andrew Whitworth. It’s significant because Jared Goff is awful under pressure. The Buccaneers offense is still a little rough around the edges, but they’re still figuring things out with all their new personnel (which is scary).
I like Brady to handle the Rams appropriately and the Bucs defense to swarm Jared Goff, much like they did against the Packers earlier in the season. Ronald Jones is coming off a career game, and the Rams may be able to matchup well against two of the Buccaneers top three receivers, but who is going to cover Gronk and Antonio Brown? I like the Buccaneers here.
Buccaneers 27 Rams 20