Who Should I Pick? Every NFL Week 10 Game Analyzed

Week 10 NFL Betting Picks

Week Nine was our fourth winning week in a row. We went 15-11 on the week, capping the week with a nice 8-2 run from Sunday afternoon’s games through Monday night’s game.

We got off to a rough start through the noon games, going 2-6 against the spreads, but our 5-3 record on total points kept us in it. From there, we cleaned up down the stretch. Once again, we hit on the Raiders, missing on the exact score by one point each way.

For the season, we are 135-127 overall. It’s been a hot last four weeks for us, as we sit at 51.5% on picks for the 2020 season so far. This week, we only have one likely bad weather game on the slate (Houston at Cleveland).

2020 Regular Season Record: 135-127 (51.5%)

 

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A breakdown of Week 10 NFL picks

Here we take a look at all the main NFL Week 10 betting lines from the BetRivers Online Sportsbook. Got a minute? Check out a summary of Collin’s picks below. Got some more time? Read on for Collin’s in-depth analysis for his picks this week:

Matchup/LineCollin's PickTake With the SpreadOver/Under
Eagles -3.5 @ Giants     O/U: 44.5    
Eagles 24 Giants 20EaglesUnder
Jaguars @ Packers -13     O/U: 50Packers 34 Jaguars 20   PackersOver
Texans @ Browns -3.5      O/U: 49Browns 27 Texans 21  BrownsUnder
Buccaneers -5.5 @ Panthers      O/U: 50.5Bucs 31 Panthers 20BucsOver
Washington Football Team @ Lions -4.5        O/U: N/ALions 23 Washington Football Team 20 WashingtonUnder
Broncos @ Raiders -4      O/U: 50.5
Raiders 27 Broncos 24   BroncosOver
Bills @ Cardinals -2.5      O/U: 56.5Cardinals 30 Bills 27CardinalsOver
Chargers @ Dolphins -1.5       O/U: 48.5Dolphins 25 Chargers 24ChargersOver
Bengals @ Steelers -7       O/U: 45.5Cardinals 26 Dolphins 23    DolphinsOver
Bengals @ Steelers -7       O/U: 45.5With Ben: Steelers 27 Bengals 17

Without Ben: Bengals 20 Steelers 19
SteelersUnder
49ers @ Saints -9     O/U: 49Saints 29 49ers 19SaintsOver
Seahawks @ Rams -1.5      O/U: 54.5Rams 30 Seahawks 27         RamsOver
Ravens -7 @ Patriots       O/U: 43.5Ravens 27 Patriots 17RavensOver
Vikings -3 @ Bears       O/U: 43.5Bears 23 Vikings 20PickUnder

Eagles -3.5 @ Giants     O/U: 44.5    

The Giants are now 2-2 in their last four, losing twice by a combined three points. The Giants are certainly playing better ball lately, but this isn’t the week to make them your sneaky play. The Eagles will be getting three key players back on offense this week, possibly a fourth with Alshon Jeffrey.

The interesting part here is how the Eagles will look like a fairly complete unit. The Eagles are coming off a bye, so they’re coming into the game with ample prep time. Add to the fact the Eagles have already recently played the Giants, this game just makes more sense in the favor of the Eagles.

Last time, the Eagles used a heavy dose of Richard Rogers to exploit the Giants secondary. This time around, the Eagles will have Dallas Goedert, Jalen Reagor, and Miles Sanders to create all kinds of game-planning struggles for the Giants. I don’t think the Eagles will come out looking like a well-oiled machine, but I like them to win and barely cover.

Eagles 24 Giants 20

Jaguars @ Packers -13     O/U: 50

The Jaguars weren’t awful last week, especially in the debut of Jake Luton. Of course, we underestimated how bad the Texans defense would be. We were still covering very late in the game, as the Texans were up eight but then promptly blew it when Luton scrambled in for a touchdown. Keep in mind, this guy hardly ever ran the ball late in college.

The Packers looked tremendous against the 49ers last week. We had the game 31-20 (actual was 34-17), which was wiped for the article due to it coming out after the game. The Packers were the team we expected them to be. This week, the Packers have an ideal matchup both offensively and defensively.

I think the Jaguars are getting way too much credit for last week’s performance against a bad defense. I think Chark is going to have trouble this week against Jhaire Alexander. I think the Jaguars don’t have anyone to stop Davante Adams, Aaron Jones, Robert Tonyan, or pretty much anyone on the Packers. I like the Packers to win big here. The only thing I think that keeps the Jaguars in this one is their outstanding running back, James Robinson.

Packers 34 Jaguars 20         

Texans @ Browns -3.5      O/U: 49

The weather is supposed to be very bad for the passing attacks here. Specifically, the wind is expected to be around 22 mph. This scares me, but it also probably reveals why this line is what it is. If the weather weren’t an issue, I’m betting this game would be closer to Browns -1.

The problem for the Texans in this game is two-fold. For one, they likely won’t be with the services of David Johnson. The second problem for them is the Browns offensive line and run game. The Texans are bad against the run (also the pass). In a game where the passing will be limited to short routes and screens, I expect Deshaun Watson to be forced to make a lot of plays on his feet.

The Browns defensive front is stout and moving the ball against them seems like a challenge the Texans won’t be able to handle well.

Browns 27 Texans 21

Buccaneers -5.5 @ Panthers      O/U: 50.5

The Bucs have looked particularly bad as of late. The offense is having their own issues, but the defense suddenly hasn’t been amazing either. The Panthers are coming off a game where they nearly ousted one of the best teams in football. Though the Panthers will be without Christian McCaffrey, they still have plenty of weapons with DJ Moore, Robby Anderson, and Curtis Samuel.

There are two important narratives here to pay attention to. The first is the Bucs’ recent pair of bad performances. They beat the Giants, but it was ugly and very much not impressive. Last week, the Buccaneers were taken to the woodshed by their divisional rival. The narrative for both these teams is that they both will be seeking to get back on track. I would normally like both these teams for a nice bounce-back week, but we can only have one here.

It’s also worth noting their first matchup. In their Week Two meeting, the Bucs rushed for 122 yards on just 22 carries. The Panthers had McCaffrey, while the Bucs were without both Chris Gowin (injury) and Antonio Brown (not yet on team). I like the Bucs to come out here and make a statement.

Bucs 31 Panthers 20

Washington Football Team @ Lions -4.5        O/U: N/A

There are some interesting things to note in this matchup. First, the Lions were just taken to the cleaners on the ground by the Vikings. Second, Washington looked very out of sorts last week on offense. The two big advantages in this game are the Washington rushing attack against the Lions defense and the Washington defensive line against the Lions offensive line.

The Lions have surrendered 21 sacks and rank 21st in adjusted sack rate (according to Football Outsiders). I like Washington to cover in a close game.

Lions 23 Washington Football Team 20 

Broncos @ Raiders -4      O/U: 50.5

Do people out there truly believe Drew Lock will be a franchise quarterback? I’ve never had faith in him from that perspective, but if you’re looking for a guy who can be safe and mediocre for years, he appears to be the guy. It’s one thing if you’re competent and keep your team in a decent game script for much of the game, but Lock seems to only put up numbers when his team is trailing big.

I like the balance of the Raiders and we’ve been nailing the Raiders all season. I don’t think it should be a mystery the Broncos have looked offensively inept in most first halves of games this season. After all, you can make a strong case a team’s true offensive strength is measured in the first half, where there aren’t prevent defenses being played and the coaches don’t get ultra-conservative.

From that outlook, the Raiders are the better team here. I expect the Raiders to win this in a game that gets close late, but ultimately the Raiders hold on. Divisional games tend to be tight, so a late cover from Denver seems fitting.

Raiders 27 Broncos 24      

Bills @ Cardinals -2.5      O/U: 56.5

Buffalo just completely curb-stomped the Seattle defense last week. We knew the game was going to be high scoring, but that was a brutal annihilation. This week, we have the seemingly unflappable Kyler Murray going against a Buffalo defense who loves to pressure the opposing quarterback, but struggles to stop teams overall.

I think this game will come down to who can be more consistent on the offensive side of the ball. The Bills aren’t great on either side defensively and the Cardinals are more in the mediocre range on both. I think these teams are dangerously close to one another in many ways.

Both have a pair of talented wide receivers, two elite corners, and two dynamic quarterbacks. The key here will be turnovers. There’s a lot to dislike about picking a winner in this game. I would steer clear unless you’re just craving action.

Cardinals 30 Bills 27

Chargers @ Dolphins -1.5       O/U: 48.5

It’s becoming terrifying to bet against the Chargers each week. Sure, we joke about their inability to finish games, but this team is so dangerous. They’ve been ahead in every game, except for the Panthers, oddly enough. The problem is, they’re close in every game this season.

The Chargers are 2-6 on the year, while the Dolphins are 6-2. The line is only 2.5, so there’s still faith in this Chargers team to compete against anyone. The Dolphins have been quietly great on defense and just good enough on offense.

This game is going to be interesting for a few reasons. For one, the Dolphins will be without their best back, again. The Chargers will as well. The Chargers are also going to be facing their toughest defense so far this season. For the Dolphins, they are facing a defense similar to the one they faced a week ago with the Cardinals. The good news for the Dolphins is that Joey Bosa will not be playing.

With an already depleted defense, the Chargers’ lone hopes of winning this game rest on the right arm of Justin Herbert. With Xavien Howard and Byron Jones lining up against the Chargers this week, it’s going to be a major challenge for this receiving corps. To add to the potential issues, Dolphins coach Brian Flores is a defensive wizard.

Even with Kyle Van Nooy and a couple of others out, I’m not sure that hurts them as greatly as one would expect. The Chargers aren’t a hyper-efficient run team, so the loss of a couple of linebackers shouldn’t loom large. I expect the Dolphins to put out a pass defense that will prevent Justin Herbert from taking the top off their defense.

I expect scoring to be down and this total points line is dangerous. I think the total ends up being within a couple of points of the current total.

Dolphins 25 Chargers 24

Bengals @ Steelers -7       O/U: 45.5

The Bengals are America’s darling right now. No matter how much they lose, they are seemingly getting heralded each week in one way or another. Contrary to the Chargers, it’s the manner by which they’re losing that they have avoided the same criticism.

Poor performance aside, the Bengals are coming off a surprising win against the Titans. Joe Burrow has improved as the season has progressed, and the defense showed up well against the Titans a week ago (well enough, for them). See what I mean? You can’t help but compliment them.

This week, the Bengals will be in some trouble. The Bengals matchup poorly against opposing rushing offenses. They also struggle on the left side of the secondary (Chase Claypool’s side of the field). Conversely, the Steelers don’t match up well on their left side on defense (Tee Higgins’ side of the field).

One important note here is the potential absence of Ben Roethlisberger. If he’s out, I have the Bengals winning outright. If Ben plays, I have the Steelers winning by ten.

With Ben: Steelers 27 Bengals 17

Without Ben: Bengals 20 Steelers 19

49ers @ Saints -9     O/U: 49

The 49ers are going in the wrong direction, while the Saints broke out of their meandering pace and blew out the Buccaneers last week. I really struggle to grasp this 49ers team this season. It seems I’m either way right or way wrong when I pick them.

As for the Saints, I’ve been all over the place with them as well. I think last week showed us the Saints are much improved defensively since early in the season, as they’re much closer to the defense we thought they’d be prior to the first game. I like the Saints as a team, but am concerned about how they’ll handle this dynamic 49ers rushing attack.

Even with key players missing on offense, the 49ers have shown they can come out and surprise teams. As much as this line is egging us on to bet the Saints, I don’t envision the 49ers competing in all three phases in this game. I expect we see a resurgence from Michael Thomas and his connection with Brees this week.

Saints 29 49ers 19

Seahawks @ Rams -1.5      O/U: 54.5

Last week, Pete Carroll admitted he didn’t expect the Bills to completely abandon the running game against the Seahawks (big yikes). Unfortunately, Carroll’s Seahawks will face a master planner in exploiting weak pass defenses (Sean McVay).

I can see McVay really opening up the playbook in this game, but I’d hesitate in one area. The Rams’ quarterback is dreadfully bad under duress. This has been clear now since the Super Bowl a few years ago, as teams have been using that against the Rams now for some time. Jamaal Adams is a dynamic safety who specializes in the pass rush, so we can expect him to be coming in on a lot of blitzes throughout the game.

I think the confidence around Russell Wilson this season has been validated, but I still think this Rams secondary may give him a few more problems than they expect. I like the Rams for this game, but expect it to be a lot closer than you might expect.

Rams 30 Seahawks 27

Ravens -7 @ Patriots       O/U: 43.5

The Ravens are playing sub-optimal football and have been for most of the season. Lamar Jackson was quoted this week saying he thinks other teams are calling out their plays at the line of scrimmage. One interesting point of note was their playcalling on first down. According to Warren Sharp (Sharp Football Analysis), the Ravens are rushing the ball at a high rate on first down and only averaging 3.9 YPC.

Last season, they rushed near the same rate on first down but had a 5.1 YPC average. What that’s doing is causing them to be put in more obvious passing down situations. The solution is simply passing the ball more on first down. This week, it may not matter, as the Ravens are facing a particularly bad rush defense with the Patriots. With added rushing success, I’m much less concerned about the Ravens offense in this game. I expect a lot of rushing from both teams, as both are near the top of the league in rushing rate.

This should keep the total points down, but also favor the Ravens, as their run and pass defenses rank among the best in the league, while the Patriots are on the opposite end of the spectrum. Though I don’t fully trust the Ravens, I like the line here for them in a game I don’t expect the Patriots to do a whole lot.

Ravens 27 Patriots 17

Vikings -3 @ Bears       O/U: 43.5

One of the more boring games of the week is the Vikings at Bears. Nobody outside these regions really thinks either team is a threat to push for the conference title. For the Bears, their offense is close to putrid. They can’t take advantage of soft matchups (as seen last week against the Titans), and the Vikings can’t stop decent offenses. The formula for the Vikings to win games is simple: Dalvin Cook going wild.

The problem is, the Bears have the number four defense in the league, so that isn’t likely to happen. With bad weather another looming issue, I anticipate this game being somewhat close and low scoring. I lean Bears here, with the hopes they’ll run more heavy packages and utilize those tight ends more. Oh, and don’t forget about Allen Robinson. He has a tremendous matchup in this game.

Bears 23 Vikings 20

 

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Author: Collin Hulbert