Welcome back to player prop picks, with betting lines from the DraftKings online sportsbook. Part 1 was released last week, and we’re looking at the back end of the props now for the Super Bowl. Both these teams are deep with pass-catchers and the props are bountiful.
For Part 1, we looked at quarterback and running back props. This time, we’ll cover the tight end and wide receivers, plus one running back prop that wasn’t available at the time Part 1 was released.
Full 2020 prop results
2020 Standard prop line record (Prop Lines & Sure Things): 75-59 (55.97%)
2020 Unit standing Prop lines only: +16 (Longshots included: -22.5)
Without further adieu, let’s get into the props for Title Week.
All odds from the DraftKings online sportsbook (also, a “unit” represents a bet at a designated amount, in line with your bankroll. One Unit should be anywhere from 1-2.5% of your bankroll for conservative bettors and 2.5-5% of your bankroll for more aggressive bettors).
Prop line bets
Our Coin flips for the week are back. Here’s the best on the board for Title Week.
Tyreek Hill under 7.5 receptions -122
Tyreek Hill had 200+ yards receiving in the first quarter against the Bucs in Week 12. It was an insane game for anyone to witness, and extremely embarrassing if you’re the defensive coordinator.
You can be sure the Bucs will focus heavily on limiting Hill in the intermediate and deep routes. It should leave Hill open for quick slants, pop passes, and screens. I don’t believe he’ll get eight of those.
Tyreek Hill under 92.5 receiving yards +101
The juice is leaning in the opposite direction here. The juice is heavy here for the over, solely off his first performance against the Bucs, but as we’ve mentioned, we expect him to be blanketed down the field.
Unless he breaks a slant, pop pass or screen for a huge gain, I feel good about the under.
Leonard Fournette to score a touchdown +125
We know about the Chiefs’ bad run defense. We also know how bad they are in short-yardage situations. Fournette has been used heavily throughout the playoffs and has yet to disappoint.
Even with Ronald Jones coming back, Fournette is the goal-line back, so expect the Bucs to try to hammer one in with the former LSU star.
The “Sure Things” are exactly that. Don’t overthink them.
Cameron Brate under 3.5 receptions -118
On Friday, Brate sat out with a back issue. This is notable because Brate is technically the second tight end and his snap count trails Rob Gronkowski anyways. Four receptions would be a tall task in his current role anyway, so I love the odds, especially since it appears Brate will try to give it a go.
Travis Kelce over 94.5 receiving yards -141
This is an astronomical line for a pass catcher. In this game, there is no player setup more for success. In all four of the scenarios we laid out in the game preview, Travis Kelce has a monster game.
There are no scenarios where Tampa will be able to cover both Hill and Kelce. Hill should be priority number one since he had over 200 receiving yards in the first half against the Bucs in Week 12.
I think the middle of the field will be wide open for much of this game. With the various blitz packages I expect from the Bucs, and the coverage focused on containing Hill; Kelce will eat.
Travis Kelce to score and win +120
Tyreek Hill is great and all, but he’s no red zone threat. Sure, he’s good for a quick slant near the goal line or a bubble screen, but he’s not the guy you’re looking for in the end zone.
The goal line threats are the big-bodied guys like your tight ends or your 6’4 receivers. Well, the Chiefs have no 6’4 receivers and they do have the best tight end in the league, so Kelce is a great candidate for a touchdown.
Leonard Fournette -200 over Darrel Williams (Matchups section) rushing yards
We covered Darrel Williams last week and explained a healthy Clyde Edwards-Helaire should re-assume the starting role. We also talked about how the Chiefs likely won’t be running the ball much at all.
Fournette also has a much higher line, and the weather forecast is looking like a run-heavy approach could be the Bucs approach.
Time to chase the dragon. We’ve hit five this year so far.
Tyreek Hill first reception +550
I don’t expect the Chiefs to come out and take shots, but I also don’t expect the Bucs to be foolish enough to come out in press coverage. Expect a screen or pop pass to kick this one off if the Chiefs get the ball first.
Chris Godwin first reception +600
If the Chiefs win the toss and defer, we should see the Bucs with the ball first. If that happens, expect a play-action pass early. Evans is your bog body for deep balls and goal-line passes, but generally not the guy Brady’s looking towards on an intermediate route in play action.
The better option in the short and intermediate is Chris Godwin. His matchup and route running favor the early looks.
Howitzer shot of the week
Gronk to score first touchdown +1400
Evans’ odds are too high, and Brate is ailing. After all, what would a game on the biggest stage be without a Brady to Gronk touchdown?
Good luck this week!