Last week we went 18-10, going 10-4 on picking the winners and 9-5 against the spread. We got a little unlucky on some late game, garbage-time covers, but ultimately capped off a third straight winning week. On the season, we are 102-90 and 54-28 over the past three weeks. Also, if you’ve been keeping track, I’m 13-0 against the spread in Colts and Chiefs games this season. Tell your friends while the flames are still hot.
This week has some interesting matchups as we hit the halfway point on the season. I’m lying, there are a few good games Sunday, but the bookend matchups this week are complete garbage. Hold your nose this week and I’ll bring the baking soda.
Promo Code: 250MATCH
Full sportsbook and online casino with slots and table games!
21+, Only 1x wager applies.
Let’s see if we can have another big week as we look at betting lines for Week 8 from the week’s picks with lines from the BetRivers online sportsbook. If you have a few minutes, check out Collin’s in-depth predictions and analysis. Got just a minute? Here is a summary of Collin’s picks for the upcoming week.
|Matchup/Line||Collin's Pick||Take With the Spread||Over/Under|
|Redskins @ Vikings -15.5 O/U: 42||Vikings 31 Redskins 10||Vikings||Under|
|Cardinals @ Saints -10.5 O/U: 49.5||Saints 27 Cardinals 20||Cardinals||Under|
|Bengals @ Rams -13.5 O/U: 48.5||Rams 34 Bengals 17||Rams||Over|
|Broncos @ Colts -6 O/U: 44||Colts 26 Broncos 17||Colts||Under|
|Chargers @ Bears -4 O/U: 40||Bears 24 Chargers 17||Bears||Over|
|Giants @ Lions -6.5 O/U: 49||Lions 27 Giants 20||Lions||Under|
|Jets @ Jaguars -5.5 O/U: 41||Jaguars 23 Jets 20||Jets||Over|
|Eagles @ Bills -1.5 O/U: 43||Bills 23 Eagles 19||Bills||Under|
|Bucs @ Titans -2.5 O/U: 46||Titans 26 Bucs 23||Titans||Over|
|Panthers @ 49ers -5.5 O/U: 41.5||49ers 25 Panthers 16||49ers||Under|
|Browns @ Patriots -12.5 O/U: 46||Patriots 41 Browns 7||Patriots||Over|
|Raiders @ Texans -6.5 O/U: 51.5||Texans 27 Raiders 24||Raiders||Under|
|Packers -4.5 @ Chiefs O/U: 47.5||Packers 30 Chiefs 17||Packers||Under|
|Dolphins @ Steelers -14.5 O/U: 43||Steelers 31 Dolphins 10||Steelers||Under|
October 24th (Thursday night)
Redskins @ Vikings -15.5 O/U: 42
The game script here will likely be something along the lines of what we saw the first few weeks with the Vikings. I’m expecting them to go very run-heavy and dominate possession, passing as little as possible. We should see anywhere between 18-26 pass attempts from Kirk Cousins this week as the total points line is a big indication this game should move along rather quickly and the snap counts will be nowhere near what they were for the Vikings in last week’s shootout. I’m not really sure who the Redskins will be going with at quarterback, but Callahan loves to run the ball, so I would expect this game and scoring to stay grounded. Vikings 31 Redskins 10
October 27th (Sunday)
Cardinals @ Saints -10.5 O/U: 49.5
Drew Brees may return this week against the Cardinals, which could certainly change the offensive dynamic, but most of the signs point to him missing this week. This offense has grown stronger each week as Teddy Bridgewater has gotten more and more settled. To be quite honest, it’s probably good for the Saints Brees has been out because the offense was able to get reps under Bridgewater, while still maintaining a one-loss record. Going forward, it’s a preview of what this offense might become once Brees decides to call it quits.
For now, the Saints are a solid defensive unit, with a dynamic running back, a great head coach, and one of the truly elite receivers in the league. This week, I think the Saints should be fine in slowing the exciting offensive youngsters from Arizona, but with a dynamic quarterback, simply hindering the passing game usually isn’t going to be enough to get the job done. The Cardinals have not allowed less than 21 points all season, so what are we expecting here, seriously? I’m expecting both teams to find ways to score. I’m expecting the Saints will win but I like the Cardinals to cover. Saints 27 Cardinals 20
Bengals @ Rams -13.5 O/U: 48.5
The dirty secret with the Bengals this season is that they have covered in four of their seven games. Their not-so-subtle secret is the fact they absolutely can’t open holes to run through, at all. The Rams were in a bit of a hole until last week, seemingly bleeding out following a three-game skid in which they allowed an average of 30 points/game during the slide. This week will be a test for the Rams in the sense that they need to win big in order to demonstrate they’re still an elite team. As of now, they certainly aren’t the team we all expected, and their window for contending is closing as their contracts are stacking up quickly. The Bengals are the type of opponent you’re expected to not just win against, but win big. I think the Rams will come out Sunday and bury the Bengals in a lopsided affair. Rams 34 Bengals 17
Broncos @ Colts -6 O/U: 44
The Broncos seem to be slipping away as a threat in the conference. They’ve lost a number of close games but have been more exposed as of late for their ineptitude at quarterback. Teams are now stacking the box more and more, baiting Joe Flacco to beat them through the air and he’s been unable to do so thus far. The Colts are coming off a big divisional win and Jacoby Brissett has exceeded everyone’s expectations to this point. In this matchup, the key will be the Bronco’s ability to beat the Colts secondary. Given the Colts’ resume as of late, that’s going to be a challenge for the Broncos and their floundering offense. I think the Colts will control this game on the ground. I expect Jacoby Brissett to manage the game and make all the necessary throws to put his team in position to win. I like the Colts to control this one from start to finish. Colts 26 Broncos 17
Chargers @ Bears -4 O/U: 40
This Chicago Bears team isn’t the team you think you know. Last week, I called the upset at the hands of the Saints because Mitch Trubisky is no better at quarterback than Chase Daniel. His return to quarterback was heavily inflated, statistically. The Bears had a kickoff return for a touchdown and that was it, until the final five minutes of the game, when Trubisky went to work in garbage time and got a couple cheap scores.
That being said, the Chargers offensive line is terrible. They can’t establish the run anymore since Pouncey went out and Melvin Gordon came back. Their defense can’t stop the run, nor can they do a whole lot against short passes. I think the Bears will control this game and though I don’t expect it will be a blowout, I do expect them to be able to hold off a late Chargers backdoor cover. Bears 24 Chargers 17
Giants @ Lions -6.5 O/U: 49
The Giants have been gut-punched back down to reality after last week’s loss against the Cardinals at home. We all thought, “The Giants are getting Saquan and Shephard and Engram back. This will be amazing”. It wasn’t and now we’re all waiting to see how this offense will come together against a Lions team who has played fairly well on the season. The Lions will be without Kerryon Johnson and just lost a corner to a trade, but they’ll be at home and aching to get back on track against a very bad Giants defense.
I trust the Lions more than the Giants on offense in this one, since Daniel Jones hasn’t really done much to quell my concerns for them lately. Alas, both teams looked equally bad a week ago. I simply trust the Lions more in this game to get the job done. Lions 27 Giants 20
Jets @ Jaguars -5.5 O/U: 41
The Jets and their colossal loss on Monday Night Football are being drastically overblown. Sure, it was an ugly game and an ugly loss and we got the “I’m seeing ghosts” quote from Sam Darnold’s mic during the game, but this is the same team who beat Dallas just a week prior and still has a decent defense. Their offense should be just fine in this game as the Jaguars are nowhere near the same level of an opponent as the Patriots were. I think the Jets will take this one down to the wire on the road and their schedule is the kind that should give people hope they can go on a bit of a run late in the season and shock America. Jaguars 23 Jets 20
Eagles @ Bills -1.5 O/U: 43
The Eagles were ripped to shreds last week against the Cowboys, exposing what many of us knew already. The Eagles tried to blend their defense a bit by committing more defenders and schemes geared towards stopping the pass. It resulted in Zeke stomping all over their defense and their secondary failing, yet again. No matter what they’ve tried, it hasn’t seemed to help stop the secondary from bleeding out.
This week, I think they’ll get back to what they did earlier in the season and just focus on stopping the running game and making Josh Allen beat them through the air. I think the Bills will be able to pick them apart with short passes and impromptu Josh Allen runs. It’s a game the Eagles will absolutely need to win, but I’m not sure their defense will be up to it. On the other side, Buffalo’s stout pass defense shut down Tom Brady, so the lack of a run game from the Eagles will mean it’s going to be a lot of Carson Wentz in the air. I don’t like this matchup or outlook for the Eagles. Bills 23 Eagles 19
Bucs @ Titans -2.5 O/U: 46
Don’t be fooled by last week. The Titans aren’t a great team. The Bucs also aren’t a great team, but sadly, I’m not sure who to trust more at quarterback, Ryan Tannehill or Jameis Winston. With Tannehill, this is a golden matchup against a bad secondary but we don’t know how he’s going to handle it. For Jameis, it’s a decent matchup against the Titans, but he’s coming off a very ugly five interception performance against the Panthers. I just don’t know who to trust here. I suppose I’m going with the Titans for one reason, the matchup is much more appealing for them. It’s also a home game, but keep in mind, I’ve not been very good predicting both Titans and Bucs games this year, so there’s a lot of uncertainty on my end here. Titans 26 Bucs 23
Panthers @ 49ers -5.5 O/U: 41.5
This game is one of those games no one expected to be particularly meaningful or interesting before the start of the season, but it’s likely now possibly one involving two playoff-bound teams. The Panthers have been nearly perfect under Kyle Allen, offensively. Their defense has come up big when it’s mattered most and the team has yet to drop a game since Allen took over. I like the 49ers matchup advantage more than the Panthers though. The 49ers are at home, their rush defense is elite. Their pass rush is elite. It’s going to be a difficult balancing act for both the Panthers rushing attack and their passing attack. Meanwhile, the 49ers love to run the ball and the Panthers are just 31st in adjusted rush defense rank, allowing 4.55 yards per carry to opposing backs. It seems like the perfect matchup for the 49ers against a relatively even opponent. 49ers 25 Panthers 16
Browns @ Patriots -12.5 O/U: 46
The Patriots have been historically amazing on defense. It’s been a joy to watch thus far and it’s led many people to question just how good the defense is, considering how they’ve had the league’s easiest strength of schedule thus far. The Browns offer a challenge unique to their season, but favorable nonetheless. The Browns have more potency from skill position players than anything the Pats have seen in 2019.
Defensively, the Pats will be going up against one of the lesser pass protecting units in the league. That’s especially tasty if you’re a Pats fan because if there’s one thing people get fired up about watching defenses, it’s sacks and turnovers. Don’t worry, there should be plenty in this one. I expect the Pats to run away with this one and never look back. This is looking a lot like an avalanche in the making. All the conditions are right for this game to snowball out of control. Patriots 41 Browns 7
Raiders @ Texans -6.5 O/U: 51.5
The Raiders are coming off their worst game of the season when they surrendered six total touchdowns to Aaron Rodgers in a lopsided loss. Meanwhile, the Texans had another one of their Jekyl and Hyde acts, losing to the Colts in a critical divisional matchup. This week should give us more clarity on both teams when the two will face off in Houston in a game crucial for both teams and their playoff hopes. The key matchup here will be the Raider’s ability to slow Deshaun Watson. With question marks like Josh Jacobs on offense this week, the Raiders will have an uphill battle focusing on stopping Watson. I think the Texans will pull this one out, but I expect it to be closer than the line indicates. Texans 27 Raiders 24
Packers -4.5 @ Chiefs O/U: 47.5
The Chiefs lost Patrick Mahomes last week but still managed to make the Broncos look like complete crap. Andy Reid realized the Broncos really can’t do anything with Joe Flacco at the helm, so they focused on stopping the Broncos run game and it worked. It was an easy road win and perhaps a bit of a surprise when you consider Mahomes exited in the first half with a dislocated knee cap.
When the second half kicked off, the Broncos had no answers and the Chiefs were able to maintain their simple gameplan to stop the run. This week, the Packers roll into Arrowhead following a massive win over the Raiders. Matt Moore, the Chiefs interim quarterback, was a scout just a few months ago and now he’s got the most critical game of his late career ahead of him against one of the NFL’s best teams. I think the Packers shouldn’t have too much of an issue stopping the Chiefs here and moving closer towards a playoff spot in the NFC. Packers 30 Chiefs 17
October 28th (Monday night)
Dolphins @ Steelers -14.5 O/U: 43
Have we seen a worse matchup on paper for Monday Night Football this season? Even pre-season, the Dolphins had Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback to start the year, so what about that says, “The Dolphins are making a push for the playoffs this year, folks”. Because I grew up a Chargers fan and had to wait until after the Chargers made the Super Bowl for them to be scheduled for their first Monday Night game in over nine years at the time or whatever, I’m very much still bitter (in case you can’t tell). The only bright spot of this game will be witnessing the development of Mason Rudolph at quarterback and hopefully seeing him connect with JuJu Smith-Schuster on a few long plays. This game truly won’t be the most riveting as I fully expect the Steelers defense to completely dominate the Dolphins and turn this game into a comfortable win for the Steelers and all their fans. Steelers 31 Dolphins 10