Breaking Down The Lines: A Review Of NFL Week 7 Games

Week 7 NFL Picks

Two weeks ago, we went 18-10. This past week, we went 20-8. It’s fair to say, we’ve been on a tear lately.

Much of the reason for this has been attributed to paying more attention and focus on the offensive and defensive lines of each week and a few other things I can’t really share, because, I like this job. On the season, we are 86-78.

Without further adieu, lets check out this week’s picks with lines from the new BetRivers online sportsbook. If you have a few minutes, check out Collin’s in-depth predictions and analysis. Got just a minute? Here is a summary of Collin’s picks for the upcoming week.

Matchup/LineCollin's PickTake With the SpreadOver/Under
Chiefs -3 @ Broncos O/U: 49Chiefs 27 Broncos 23ChiefsOver
Cardinals @ Giants -3 O/U: 49.5Giants 31 Cardinals 27GiantsOver
Texans @ Colts -1 O/U: 47Colts 24 Texans 20ColtsUnder
Jaguars -3.5 @ Bengals O/U: 43.5Jaguars 23 Bengals 16JaguarsUnder
Rams -3 @ Falcons O/U: 55.5Rams 34 Falcons 24 RamsOver
Dolphins @ Bills -17 O/U: 40.5Bills 27 Dolphins 14DolphinsOver
Vikings -1 @ Lions O/U: 45Vikings 27 Lions 24VikingsOver
Raiders @ Packers -5.5 O/U: 46.5Packers 27 Raiders 23RaidersOver
49ers -9.5 @ Redskins O/U: 4249ers 27 Redskins 1349ersUnder
Chargers @ Titans -2 O/U: 40Titans 19 Chargers 16TitansUnder
Ravens @ Seahawks -3 O/U: 50.5Seahawks 31 Ravens 27SeahawksOver
Saints @ Bears -3 O/U: 38.5Saints 17 Bears 16SaintsUnder
Eagles @ Cowboys -3 O/U: 49.5 Eagles 31 Cowboys 20EaglesOver
Patriots -9.5 @ Jets O/U: 43Patriots 24 Jets 13PatriotsUnder

October 17th (Thursday night)

Chiefs -3 @ Broncos O/U 49

My concern here is the health of Patrick Mahomes. He’s only thrown four touchdowns and had one interception in the past three weeks, but he’s clearly being hampered by the ankle injury. This game is worrisome for a few reasons. For one, Kansas City’s defense is awful. Last week was a complete meltdown at home, following a hot start and with Mahomes not being 100 %, it’s a fairly scary prospect.

The only saving grace of this matchup is the fact Joe Flacco is the quarterback of the Broncos and he’s not exactly a guy who is going to carry the offense. However, with Kansas City’s rush defense being so awful, they’ll be able to keep the run game going. The Broncos run game and their suddenly improved defense sure looks great, but then again, they’ve played the Titans, who are seemingly less and less capable each week, offensively, and the Chargers, whose offensive line has been completely decimated by injuries. I think the Chiefs rally and eek this one out. Chiefs 27 Broncos 23

October 20th (Sunday)

Cardinals @ Giants -3 O/U: 49.5

The Giants didn’t look incompetent last week in a game without Saquan Barkley, Sterling Shephard, and Evan Engram. Daniel Jones just faced perhaps the toughest defense he’s going to see over his entire career, and yet he still managed to drop in a few dime passes here and there. Kyler Murray has been heating up as of late, but then again, everyone looks amazing against the Falcons and Bengals defenses, so let’s come back down to earth with the Kyler hype. With the return of the trio of offensive stars this week, I think the Giants will pull out a victory in a shootout at home. Giants 31 Cardinals 27

Texans @ Colts -1 O/U: 47

I’m still undefeated on games involving both the Colts and Chiefs this season (11-0 ATS). That may end Thursday if Mahomes isn’t healthy, heading into Denver on a short week, but there’s one critical thing to consider with this matchup: Last year’s Wildcard game. I know it’s been about eight months since they played that lopsided game in Houston but Frank Reich will be ready. Coming off a bye, the Colts will be prepared for Deshaun Watson. The Texans are coming off a huge road win against the Chiefs, so this is the fall-to-earth type of game that we’ve seen so many times. Colts 24 Texans 20

Jaguars -3.5 @ Bengals O/U: 43.5

The Bengals aren’t as terrible as we all think. Yes, they’re winless and all, but they’ve covered in four games (Seattle, Buffalo, Arizona, and Baltimore). All that being said, the Jaguars are going to be relieved to not be playing a legit defense, especially after last week’s difficult matchup against the Saints. The Jags defense is not the elite unit it was in the past, but they certainly aren’t the defense you’d want to pick against for the Bengals to get their first win. Jaguars 23 Bengals 16

Rams -3 @ Falcons O/U: 55.5

The Falcons have the worst quarterback pressure rates in the league this season and the Rams are really only struggling on offense because of their inability to pressure the quarterback. Jared Goff has been pressured the third-most among active quarterbacks this season and his TD to INT ratio is 1:1. Even with Jalen Ramsey, the Rams aren’t going to shut down this Falcons offense. Nevertheless, the Falcons have such an atrocious defense, I think the Rams will control this game, despite all their issues on the O-line and defense. Rams 34 Falcons 24

Dolphins @ Bills -17 O/U: 40.5

This spread is just so absurd for Buffalo. The Buffalo offense isn’t, by any means, explosive. They aren’t some super-efficient offense who can pick you apart. They also aren’t the kind of team who’s going to get out to a big lead and keep their foot on the gas. I just don’t see a scenario here where the Bills are winning a full-on rout. The Dolphins are awful but moving back to Ryan Fitzpatrick should at least make their offense somewhat dangerous. I see this going one of two ways. Either Buffalo pulls away late or the Bills absolutely destroy the Dolphins in a turnover-heavy contest. I’m going with scenario #1 here. Bills 27 Dolphins 14

Vikings -1 @ Lions O/U: 45

The Lions were robbed last week, eight different ways. Well, just four different ways. Still, this team is much better than people are giving them credit. I think the problem for them in this game is the Vikings are solid defensively and their rushing attack is insanely good. The Lions are ranked 30th against opposing backs, so I don’t think the Vikings will even need to test the waters much with Kirk Cousins in this one. I’ve got this to come down to a field goal but I’m going with the Purple People Eaters. Vikings 27 Lions 24

Raiders @ Packers -5.5 O/U: 46.5

The Raiders aren’t bad. It took Gruden some time, but it looks like this team might be turning the corner. They upset the Bears a few weeks back, they beat the Colts, they beat the Broncos. They’ve been close in most games. I think this game comes down to the fact the Raiders are coming off a bye and the team will likely not be facing the prospect of covering avante Adams. This should be another close game down the stretch and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Raiders pull off another stunner. Packers 27 Raiders 23

49ers -9.5 @ Redskins O/U: 42

The Redskins showed last week they’re committed to not being the worst team in the NFL as they hung on late to squash a Dolphins comeback. It’s no secret Callahan wants to run the ball. The problem though is the 49ers are either the best or second-best (Eagles) run defense in the NFL. The 49ers also have an incredible pass rush. This 9.5 line makes a lot more sense than it would have before we realized the 49ers were actually good, but all the arrows point to the 49ers in this game, so I’m going 49ers in a landslide. 49ers 27 Redskins 13

Chargers @ Titans -2 O/U: 40

Speaking of landslides, the Chargers and Titans have both been reeling lately. Both teams are in downward spirals and this game seems like a clear desperation game for them both. If one of these teams still has playoff aspirations, this will be the hurdle one needs to get them back into the hunt. The Chargers rush defense hasn’t been very good and they’ve been getting shredded lately at the second level of the defense. Their offense has been in complete panic since Mike Pouncey was lost for the season in the Broncos game. The Titans, on the other hand, have bolstered their O-line with the return of Taylor Lewan, and the team is looking to open up the offense by starting Ryan Tannehill (don’t laugh, yet). I think it’s an ugly game, but the Titans will pull it out. Titans 19 Chargers 16

Ravens @ Seahawks -3 O/U: 50.5

This may be the most interesting game of the week. The Ravens are overrated, by many people’s estimates, mine included. They haven’t had an especially difficult schedule and they hung on last week in a victory over the Bengals. I think the Seahawks will control this game from the start and the Ravens won’t be able to rally to pull off the road upset. Russell Wilson has come up huge this season when the team has needed it and they’ll waste no time getting out front in this game. I don’t think Jackson is quite at the level yet to be able to move the ball downfield when it matters most and for that, I’m taking the Seahawks. Seahawks 31 Ravens 27

Saints @ Bears -3 O/U: 38.5

The Saints continue to disappoint me because I continue to bet against them. Maybe it’s just time I accept their defense is for real and move on. This game has the makings of a trap game for the Saints. I could imagine the Saints fans after this week saying, “Thank God Brees is almost back” because this appears to be a defensive struggle the Saints may not be able to bear. I like the Saints defense as the stronger unit here, and I like the fact Mitch Trubisky may be the quarterback on the other side because I strongly believe he isn’t good, so the Bears will be very limited offensively. I like Michael Thomas to get a load of attention in this game and believe the Saints will again prevail, despite the fact the Bears are at home and coming off a bye. Saints 17 Bears 16

Eagles @ Cowboys -3 O/U: 49.5

It might be a bad sign I continue to pick road teams against teams at home or fresh off a bye, but I’ve seen nothing about the Cowboys in recent weeks that gives me hope for them this week. It also looks like Amari Cooper might not be able to play in this game, so without Cooper out there and the Cowboys’ struggles protecting Dak from pressure on those long routes, I think the Eagles should be able to pull off the road victory. Miles Sanders is carving out a much more prominent role in the offense and Carson Wentz is finally getting the reps with his receiving corps, now that all but Desean Jackson are healthy. If Cooper plays, I have the Cowboys winning by four. If he sits, the Eagles will take it. Cooper is just that critical to the rhythm and downfield success in this offense. Eagles 31 Cowboys 20

October 21st (Monday night

Patriots -9.5 @ Jets O/U: 43

The Patriots barely covered last week in what turned out to be a competitive contest through the first three quarters. With the return of Sam Darnold, the Jets look like a completely different team. The defense wasn’t completely exhausted last week as they were while Darnold was out, so we got to see them lock down the Cowboys for a great portion of the game, before ultimately stopping a two-point conversion to tie and sealing the game with an onside recovery.

The key this week will be sustaining drives for the Jets. I know the Patriots are looking stellar this year defensively, but the Patriots haven’t exactly faced a tough slate of opponents thus far, so their odds for covering a double-digit spread — against an opponent very different from the one they saw earlier in the season– aren’t especially great. I’ll take the Patriots with 10 days of rest to cover this week. Patriots 24 Jets 13


Author: Collin Hulbert