Week 13 went really (20-12). It was back to a full slate of games last week as all 32 teams were in action for the first time since the opening month. We pulled off our second 20-win week of the season last week. The weather wasn’t as bad of an issue as we all suspected it could be in a few games. Despite the snow, the Packers game almost went exactly how we guessed. A few games went completely opposite of how we expected, but for the most part, it wasn’t a difficult week.
2019 record: 196-162 (54.74%)
During Week 14, we try to follow up last week’s performance with another solid week. As always, the betting lines listed come from the BetRivers online sportsbook. If you have a few minutes, check out Collin’s in-depth predictions and analysis. Got just a minute? Here is a summary of Collin’s picks for the upcoming week.
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|Matchup/Line||Collin's Pick||Take With the Spread||Over/Under|
|Cowboys -3 @ Bears O/U: 43||Cowboys 24 Bears 20||Cowboys||Over|
|Ravens -6 @ Bills O/U: 43.5||Ravens 27 Bills 20||Ravens||Over|
|Panthers @ Falcons -3 O/U: 47||Falcons 29 Panthers 21||Falcons||Over|
|Bengals @ Browns -7 O/U: 41.5||Browns 23 Bengals 20||Bengals||Over|
|Broncos @ Texans -9 O/U: 42||Texans 26 Broncos 20||Broncos||Over|
|Lions @ Vikings -12.5 O/U: 43.5||Vikings 31 Lions 17||Vikings||Over|
|Colts @ Buccaneers -3 O/U: 47.5||Bucs 27 Colts 23||Bucs||Over|
|Dolphins @ Jets -5 O/U: 46||Jets 27 Dolphins 20||Jets||Over|
|49ers @ Saints -2.5 O/U: 44.5||49ers 24 Saints 23||49ers||Over|
|Redskins @ Packers -12.5 O/U: 41.5||Packers 31 Redskins 13||Packers||Over|
|Chargers -3 @ Jaguars O/U: 43||Chargers 27 Jaguars 17||Chargers||Over|
|Chiefs @ Patriots -3 O/U: 49||Patriots 24 Chiefs 22||Chiefs||Under|
|Steelers -2.5 @ Cardinals O/U: 43||Steelers 24 Cardinals 21||Steelers||Over|
|Titans -3 @ Raiders O/U: 47||Titans 31 Raiders 17||Titans||Over|
|Seahawks @ Rams -1 O/U: 47||Seahawks 31 Rams 24||Seahawks||Over|
|Giants @ Eagles -9.5 O/U: 45.5||Eagles 30 Giants 20||Eagles||Over|
December 5th (Thursday)
Cowboys -3 @ Bears O/U: 43
This game already happened, so I’ll recap my reasoning as to why I took the Cowboys and the over. I liked the game for Zeke to have a monster performance. Tony Pollard was ruled out with an ankle injury and the Cowboys failed last week to take advantage of a soft Bills rush defense and instead focused on turning the ball over and falling way behind, on Prescott’s shoulders. I assumed this game would be the “We will attack the Bears weakness, the rushing defense this week; don’t worry”. I was again wrong and gave Garrett way too much credit, as usual.
After using the rushing game to get out to a 7-0 lead, the Cowboys got away from the plan as quickly as they could have. Following the opening drive and the second drive that started at their own 1, the Cowboys only rushed the ball 9 more times the rest of the game (after having 10 rushes on the first two drives). In the end, I was fortunate to at last get the over correct. Cowboys 24 Bears 20
December 8th (Sunday)
Ravens -6 @ Bills O/U: 43.5
Buffalo got it done last week against a suddenly weaker Cowboys defense on the road. Josh Allen looked possessed to do whatever it took to win. The Bills pulled away in that game and really stuck it to the Cowboys and made a statement. The Ravens also made a statement in their game in which Lamar Jackson literally carried the Ravens to another victory. There are similarities with both these teams. Both teams lean heavily on their quarterbacks to move the chains both on the ground and through the air. Both also have solid defenses.
The Ravens probably have a better overall defense and that’s why I’m leaning on the Ravens in this one. The Bills rushing defense is suspect. Lamar Jackson has also shredded everyone’s defense this season, so even if the Bills were solid as a rush defense, I’d still expect the Ravens to be able to run on them. For that advantage, I’m going Ravens here. Ravens 27 Bills 20
Panthers @ Falcons -3 O/U: 47
The Panthers have been on this nose dive now for weeks. Their coach was just fired, and they’re going on the road to face a Falcons team who has been playing pretty good football lately. I am a believer in the Falcons now since their switch on defensive playcalling. I’m also a believer in Matt Ryan against a bad pass defense.
I think they’ll be motivated at home and will focus their efforts on pressuring Kyle Allen and attempting to spy Christian McCaffrey. I think DJ Moore should be the beneficiary here in the Panthers offense, but the Falcons are going to turn this into a boat race and I just don’t like the Panthers chances keeping up. Falcons 29 Panthers 21
Bengals @ Browns -7 O/U: 41.5
This game should be a lot more entertaining than you may expect. I’m a big believer here in the over, as Andy Dalton’s return to the lineup should open up this offense. I don’t expect the Bengals to stymie the Browns here, so I think this game should remain pretty close throughout. I like the Browns to win but I think the Bengals will be in it late, so this seems like a field goal game to me. The Bengals have covered the spread in over half their games this season, so to me they’re trending up this week again. Browns 23 Bengals 20
Broncos @ Texans -9 O/U: 42
Drew Lock got off to a hot start last week before going ice cold for most of the rest of the game. The Texans are coming off a very impressive victory against the Super Bowl champs. The line here is a little strange to me. I know there’s only a slim hope that the Broncos can pass the ball well against the Texans, but I feel like they’ll be able to run the ball well. I can’t imagine Deshaun Watson will shred a good defense with the likes of Von Miller chasing him in the backfield. Texans 26 Broncos 20
Lions @ Vikings -12.5 O/U: 43.5
The Lions weren’t bad on Thanksgiving. Once Blough proved he could make an accurate deep throw — first pass attempt of the game — the Lions seemed very comfortable on offense throughout the game. They’re definitely not as bad as this line indicates. That being said, how confident are we the Lions can keep up with the Vikings and their amazing offense?
This does have a bit of a boat race feel to it, but I can’t imagine the Vikings will be airing it out with a lead. I expect a lot of Dalvin Cook in the first half, but once the Vikings get a decent lead, we should see a lot of Alexander Mattison. I hate the line here, but I don’t think the Lions will be able to keep up. Vikings 31 Lions 17
Colts @ Buccaneers -3 O/U: 47.5
I’ve been good with the Colts this year. I believe I’ve only incorrectly picked them against the spread versus the Dolphins. That being said, the Bucs have been playing very well over the past few weeks. Their defense has improved and their rushing game is getting work again. I think the Colts have a very solid team as a whole, but they’ve struggled throwing the ball for over a month now and the Bucs rushing defense is elite. I like the Bucs to win but I think it should be a pretty close, low scoring game throughout. Bucs 27 Colts 23
Dolphins @ Jets -5 O/U: 46
The Dolphins have been playing pretty good football lately. To elaborate; they’ve been playing great offensively and winning games. The Jets are coming off a streak of good games which ended last week with a thorough beating at the hands of the Bengals. I’m a little confused as to why the Jets are five-point favorites here, but I’ll lean into it. The Jets have a solid rushing defense and they are well aware of the Dolphins struggles rushing the ball.
It makes you think the Jets are just focusing on stopping Ryan Fitzpatrick and won’t be too concerned about what the Dolphins do on the ground. The last time these two played, Fitzpatrick had 288 yards passing and three touchdowns. I think the Jets will come out prepared this week and disrupt Fitzpatrick enough to allow them a close home victory. Jets 27 Dolphins 20
49ers @ Saints -2.5 O/U: 44.5
As much as I like the idea of the Saints winning at home, I’m hesitant for a few reasons. For one, the Saints were shredded through the air by Kyle Allen two weeks ago, so their vaunted defense isn’t what we all think it is. The 49ers run the ball extremely well and though the Saints have a good rush defense, they haven’t encountered blocking talent and schemes like what the 49ers offer.
I also think George Kittle will have a great week this week. As much as I respect Michael Thomas and this team in general, I just think the 49ers defense is going to be a steeper challenge this week for the Saints rather than the other way around. 49ers 24 Saints 23
Redskins @ Packers -12.5 O/U: 41.5
Aaron Rodgers did exactly what we expected he would do last week. He came out and took advantage of the Giants and their terrible secondary. The Redskins aren’t great, but they aren’t complete trash on defense. Last week, the Skins handled the Panthers and controlled the game on the ground. This week, if the Packers can get out to a decent lead, I don’t think Dwayne Haskins is going to be able to dig them out of a hole, so I love the Packers to control this game and cover here, similarly to a week ago. Packers 31 Redskins 13
Chargers -3 @ Jaguars O/U: 43
You have to like this line for the Chargers. They’ve been frustrated all season long and have an awful 4-8 record despite having a positive scoring differential. The Jaguars have been getting stomped by everyone lately and just moved on from Nick Foles at quarterback and back to Gardner Minshew.
This one seems like an easy pick for me. The Chargers are a better overall team and now are more healthy than they’ve been all season with the return of Derwin James. James and Hayward are going to make things difficult for Minshew. I’m expecting a Chargers win here Chargers 27 Jaguars 17
Chiefs @ Patriots -3 O/U: 49
The Chiefs looked like a complete team for the first time in a long time last week. Because they got out to such a big lead, they didn’t even need to worry about the Raiders strength, the run game. The Raiders abandoned the run last week, electing to try to cut into the lead through the air and it really just snowballed for them. The Patriots were coming off their worst game of the season in which they too abandoned the run and went into hurry-up, dink and dunk mode in the second half.
I like the Patriots to come out here and try to run the ball. The Chiefs have a weaker rush defense and should be susceptible on the ground. I think the Patriots will be working hard to slow down both Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill, so I think this game should stay close throughout. Mahomes hasn’t looked very crisp lately and I fear the Chiefs are going to struggle against this Patriots defense late. I like the Patriots to come out on top, at home. Patriots 24 Chiefs 22
Steelers -2.5 @ Cardinals O/U: 43
The Steelers probably won’t try to exploit the Cardinals weak secondary with much tenacity, given the limitations of their recently appointed new starting quarterback. I expect this to be a game in which the Steelers play it safe and take their shots when they get them, but I also don’t expect them to blow the doors off the Cardinals. I think the Cardinals will hang around, due to Kyler Murray, but I like the Steelers, in desperation mode, to escape with a field goal victory. Steelers 24 Cardinals 21
Titans -3 @ Raiders O/U: 47
The Raiders have now been blown out by both the Jets and the Chiefs. They’re sliding out of the playoff race and could essentially be eliminated this week with a loss to the Titans. The Titans are 6-1 in their past seven games and Ryan Tannehill has been on fire over that span. Derrick Henry also appears to be playing in prime form.
It was revealed this week that Josh Jacobs has been playing through a shoulder injury. Nothing looks good for the Raiders at this point and I don’t have any confidence in their ability to give the Titans a good game. I like the Titans to cruise here. Titans 31 Raiders 17
Seahawks @ Rams -1 O/U: 47
This game is a bit of a coin flip. The Seahawks have been winning games by less than one score all season long now. Surely, their luck has to run out at some point. I don’t think this will be the week. I think the Seahawks will pressure Goff as much as possible and I think the Rams aren’t going to be able to stop Russell Wilson and this Seahawks rushing attack. The Rams should be able to put up points and hang around, but I think the Seahawks will leave LA with a clutch victory. Seahawks 31 Rams 24
December 9th (Monday night)
Giants @ Eagles -9.5 O/U: 45.5
Eli Manning is back! I know everyone is really excited to see what he can do. To me, this comes down to the Eagles’ desire to win and stay in the playoff hunt. I like the Eagles to pressure Eli early and often and force a few costly turnovers. I like the Eagles rush defense to slow Barkley, but Barkley may be the key to the Giants sticking around in the game. I like the Eagles this week to win and cover in a huge bounce back performance to propel them into a late playoff push. Eagles 30 Giants 20