Last week went fairly well overall as we went for a respectable 15-13. I’d have been a lot happier if the refs in the 49ers game had blown the final play dead like it should’ve been, instead of allowing such a nonsensical defensive touchdown at the end of the game. Regardless of the silliness that is NFL referees, we are still having a great season. It is on to Week 12.
2019 record: 159-139 (53.3%)
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This week we will try to keep the momentum going from last week. As always, the betting lines listed come from the BetRivers online sportsbook. If you have a few minutes, check out Collin’s in-depth predictions and analysis. Got just a minute? Here is a summary of Collin’s picks for the upcoming week.
|Matchup/Line||Collin's Pick||Take With the Spread||Over/Under|
|Colts @ Texans -3.5 O/U: 46||Colts 23 Texans 20||Colts||Under|
|Panthers @ Saints -9.5 O/U: 47||Saints 27 Panthers 17||Saints||Under|
|Broncos @ Bills -4 O/U: 38.5||Bills 24 Broncos 21||Broncos||Over|
|Lions -3.5 @ Redskins O/U: 42.5||Lions 27 Redskins 13||Lions||Over|
|Dolphins @ Browns -10 O/U: 44.5||Browns 25 Dolphins 20||Dolphins||Over|
|Giants @ Bears -6.5 O/U: 40.5||Bears 20 Giants 17||Giants||Under|
|Raiders -3 @ Jets O/U: 46.5||Jets 27 Raiders 24||Jets||Over|
|Steelers -6.5 @ Bengals O/U: 38.5||Steelers 20 Bengals 13||Steelers||Under|
|Seahawks @ Eagles -1.5 O/U: 48||Eagles 26 Seahawks 23||Eagles||Over|
|Buccaneers @ Falcons -4.5 O/U: 51.5||Falcons 38 Bucs 17||Falcons||Over|
|Jaguars @ Titans -3 O/U: 41||Titans 24 Jaguars 19||Titans||Over|
|Cowboys @ Patriots -6.5 O/U: 46||Patriots 31 Cowboys 20||Patriots||Over|
|Packers @ 49ers -3 O/U: 47.5||49ers 27 Packers 23||49ers||Over|
|Ravens -3.5 @ Rams O/U: 46.5||Ravens 30 Rams 17||Ravens||Under|
November 21st (Thursday)
Colts @ Texans -3.5 O/U: 46
The Colts have been an odd team as of late. They struggled mightily against the Dolphins, but rebounded following the return of Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. In Week 11, the Colts had their way on the ground with the Jaguars. The Colts had no problem shutting down the Jaguars in a one-sided victory. The Texans were completely destroyed by the Ravens. This division is always tricky and the winds of change move quickly in the NFL. I’m not sold on the Colts being an actual contender, but I am sure they look like the better team right now and they have the much better coach on a short week. Colts 23 Texans 20
November 24th (Sunday)
Panthers @ Saints -9.5 O/U: 47
The Panthers are in a downward spiral like none other. Last week was a complete mess as the Panthers were absolutely beaten down by a suddenly dominant Falcons defense. It came as a shock to many, myself included, when the Flacons blew the Panthers out last week. I was a subscriber to the idea that the Saints just had an off week in Week 10 when the Falcons shut them down.
I think the Panthers are vulnerable on defense and the Saints defense is still underrated. The Saints are a top 10 defense by nearly every source and they’re a top 3 rush defense, which should be helpful when attempting to stop Christian McCaffrey. I like the Saints to win and cover this week. Saints 27 Panthers 17
Broncos @ Bills -4 O/U: 38.5
I’d like to be a believer in this Bills team, but they’ve yet to really have a blowout victory. They soundly beat the Redskins and pulled away from the Dolphins a week ago, but their defense has weaknesses and their rushing defense isn’t sound. Conversely, the Broncos can run the ball very well, but their passing attack is among one of the worst in the league.
The Broncos are going to have to run the ball especially well, but I have faith in their ability to do so. Unfortunately for the Broncos, the Bills have been stellar against opposing quarterbacks and the Broncos don’t have a good one. I simply don’t see the Broncos going on the road, following a heartbreaking blown game, and beating this Bills team. Bills 24 Broncos 21
Lions -3.5 @ Redskins O/U: 42.5
The Redskins may have hit a new low after last week’s loss to the Jets. I’m thrilled my Jets pick finally came through, but the Redskins were actually worse than I expected. Their team doesn’t seem to care about their quarterback, at all. Videos emerged of Dwayne Haskins pleading with his offensive linemen for help, but no one wanted to hear him out. It was sad to see, but winning cures all, so perhaps the Redskins should consider playing a quarterback who can help them win now, as opposed to their “QB of the future.” After seeing what Jeff Driskell managed to do against the Cowboys a week ago, I’m convinced he’s the much better quarterback in this matchup. I’m going with the Lions to get a road victory here. Lions 27 Redskins 13
Dolphins @ Browns -10 O/U: 44.5
The Dolphins put up a decent fight last week, but couldn’t find a way to stop Josh Allen. Allen ran and threw all over them and the Bills pulled away in the second half. The Browns are coming off a bit home victory against their division rivals, the Steelers. Thursday night games are tough to break down, but I like the potential momentum gain this game holds for the Browns. Ryan Fitzpatrick has been known to keep teams in games and this one seems like another one where he’ll be relied upon to bring the team back from a deficit. I like the Dolphins to stick around and cover. Browns 25 Dolphins 20
Giants @ Bears -6.5 O/U: 40.5
The Giants are coming off a bye, which doesn’t really mean anything. I just thought it was worth noting. I’m not too worried about this game being entertaining. Unless Saquan gets a breakaway touchdown, this may actually be the most boring game of the week. I think the Bears have the better team and though the Giants have shown potency this season on offense, they’re only looked good against really bad defenses. I think the Bears may make the smart move here and switch to Chase Daniel at quarterback. If so, I like the Bears to win and cover. If it’s Trubisky, I’m taking the Giants to cover and the under. Bears 20 Giants 17
Raiders -3 @ Jets O/U: 46.5
The Raiders were a little underwhelming last week against the Bengals. This line would seem like it should be a lot greater than it is, but the Jets have a very strong rushing defense, and the Raiders success is predicated on their ability to effectively run the ball. I’m expecting the Raiders to go heavy on the play-action in this game and I wouldn’t be shocked to see this game come down to the wire. I know the Raiders seem like an obvious choice here, but their pass defense is currently ranked 30th. Their rush defense also was gouged last week by the Bengals, who have been a historically bad run-blocking team this season.
The Jets are getting more and more confident in their passing game, as Darnold gets more settled into the offense. With a game featuring two bad pass defenses and two balanced offense, this game should be more high scoring than many would anticipate. Jets 27 Raiders 24
Steelers -6.5 @ Bengals O/U: 38.5
The Bengals are playing with a bad offensive line and a rookie quarterback. They’ve been able to hang around and cover the spread in over half their games. This week, the Steelers are coming off a very embarrassing road game in which Mason Rudolph tossed four interceptions and managed to get his head smashed by an opposing player using Mason’s helmet. It was truly a game to erase from their memories. This week, you can guarantee the Steelers will be out to get everything back on track. This week is a must-win.
The Steelers will certainly be devising a plan to bait rookie quarterback, Ryan Finley, into making tough throws. The Steelers should find it easy to play things close to the line of scrimmage this week, so I’m expecting a heavy dose of runs and screens, especially without Juju and Dionte Washington. Steelers 20 Bengals 13
Seahawks @ Eagles -1.5 O/U: 48
This game is one of the true confusing games I’ve seen for some time. The Eagles are favored, which immediately makes us pause and consider why this is the case. Well, it comes down to the offensive and defensive lines, as it typically does. This game is going to be a betting trap for many. The Eagles are at home and have the better defensive and offensive lines.
The Seahawks love to run the ball, but the Eagles — now playing with Fletcher Cox again — are one of the league’s best rushing defenses. Though the Eagles will be down weapons in the backfield and on the outside, they’ll be able to control the line, which should help the Eagles reap the benefits of play action as the game wears on. I think Russell Wilson is definitely going to make some plays, but I like the Eagles at home this week. Eagles 26 Seahawks 23
Buccaneers @ Falcons -4.5 O/U: 51.5
The Falcons have been flying high the past two weeks, which has come as a shock to anyone who’s still actually paying attention to them. Two weeks ago, they shut down the Saints. Last week, they annihilated the Panthers. This week, they get a Tampa Bay defense who has been getting carved up by every team they’ve played this season. Had it not been for the past two weeks, I think I’d be going Bucs here, but it would be a little crazy to go against the Falcons this week when they have such a favorable matchup. I’m staying close to the fire this week and taking the Falcons. Falcons 38 Bucs 17
Jaguars @ Titans -3 O/U: 41
The Titans are playing good football as of late. Before the bye, the Titans knocked off the Chiefs in Tennessee behind a valiant effort from the Titans O-line and Derrick Henry. Henry will be gifted the Jaguars soft rush defense (4th worst in the NFL) this week in an inter-divisional matchup that should offer the Titans a nice revenge game narrative. In their earlier season matchup, Marcus Mariota was hopelessly ineffective, the Titans O-line was banged up and Taylor Lewan was suspended. This time around, the Titans have all the momentum and personnel to exact their revenge. All the stars are aligned for this one for the Titans. I like the Titans to cruise, with a late touchdown from Jacksonville to push the over Titans 24 Jaguars 19
Cowboys @ Patriots -6.5 O/U: 46
Dak Prescott, in almost any other season, would be the current frontrunner for MVP this season. It’s important to note this now, instead of after this game, when we casually forget Cooper is banged up. It’s really not looking good for the Cowboys this week with the prospect of Cooper being hampered in this game. He’s also got a really tough matchup with Stephon Gilmore. As for Zeke, he’s going to have a difficult time against this Patriots 9th ranked rush defense.
The Patriots haven’t exactly faced a lot of good rushing offenses outside of the Ravens, so there’s a really good chance Zeke gets a load of touches in the hopes the Cowboys can exploit a possible weakness in the Patriots armor. In the end, I think the Patriots will win the coaching battle, big time, so I can’t see a scenario where the Cowboys cover. Patriots 31 Cowboys 20
Packers @ 49ers -3 O/U: 47.5
The Packers are coming off their bye week and are facing a solid 49ers defense, who has really only struggled against quarterbacks with good mobility. Aaron Rodgers isn’t that guy anymore. He can make plays on foot, but he’s much more like Derek Carr or Carson Wentz on the ground. He’s not going to drive you nuts by extending a play and making three defenders miss on the ground. The Packers defense is decent, but they have been very weak against the run this year and the 49ers have a very dynamic rushing attack. The matchup is in the 49ers favor and the game is at home. I’m riding with the 49ers in this one. 49ers 27 Packers 23
November 25th (Monday night)
Ravens -3.5 @ Rams O/U: 46.5
I’m at the front of the “Jared Goff is a trash quarterback who has to have the perfect conditions to succeed” wagon. I said it again last week and he did nothing to disprove me, yet again. I picked the Steelers to upset the Rams and they did. I’m seeing right through this Rams team and they’re a shell of the same team we saw a year ago. Though I don’t think they can regain the efficiency numbers down the stretch, they can regain some of the chemistry as long as their personnel packages can continue to aid in blocking for their passing game. The Ravens have been a very effective team when blitzing and I expect it’ll be too much for Goff to handle again. Also, the Rams just aren’t going to be ready to stop Lamar Jackson. Ravens 30 Rams 17