Breaking Down The Lines: A Review Of NFL Week 11 Games

Week 11 NFL Picks

It was a weird week from a sudden injury report standpoint. Typically, when players are questionable for a game, I’ll offer two picks. One pick includes the player playing and the other includes when the player is out. Both the Lions’ Matt Stafford and the Colts’ Jacoby Brissett were probable heading into Sunday but Brissett was ruled out Saturday and Stafford ruled out with a broken back on Sunday morning.

This unexpected news, unless I offer an updated pick, nullify the matchup, so both those games were nixed from the slate after the news came out. On the week overall, we did well, ending last week 13-9 ATS and total points. I should’ve offered another pick contingent upon George Kittle not playing but I didn’t and that news was out prior to the article, so I’ll take that loss. For the season in NFL picks, we are 144-126 (53.3%).

In this post, we try to improve on our performance from last week, looking at betting lines from the BetRivers online sportsbook. If you have a few minutes, check out Collin’s in-depth predictions and analysis. Got just a minute? Here is a summary of Collin’s picks for the upcoming week.

Matchup/LineCollin's PickTake With the SpreadOver/Under
Steelers @ Browns -2.5 O/U: 43Steelers 23 Browns 20SteelersN/A
Falcons @ Panthers -4.5 O/U: 49Panthers 29 Falcons 23PanthersOver
Bills -6.5 @ Dolphins O/U: 41Bills 28 Dolphins 17BillsOver
Cowboys NA @ Lions O/U: NACowboys 34 Lions 13N/AN/A
Broncos @ Vikings -10 O/U: 40 Vikings 24 Broncos 17 BroncosOver
Texans @ Ravens -4 O/U: 51.5Ravens 34 Texans 24 RavensUnder
Jaguars @ Colts -2.5 O/U: 43.5 Colts 23 Jaguars 20ColtsUnder
Saints -5.5 @ Bucs O/U: 50Saints 31 Bucs 24 SaintsOver
Jets @ Redskins -2.5 O/U: 38.5 Jets 20 Redskins 17JetsUnder
Cardinals @ 49ers -9.5 O/U: 4549ers 24 Cardinals 20CardinalsUnder
Bengals @ Raiders -11.5 O/U: 48.5Raiders 34 Bengals 13RaidersUnder
Patriots -3.5 @ Eagles O/U: 45Patriots 27 Eagles 20PatriotsOver
Bears @ Rams -6 O/U: 39.5Rams 20 Bears 17BearsUnder
Chiefs -4 @ Chargers O/U: 52Chiefs 31 Chargers 23ChiefsOver

November 14th (Thursday)

Steelers @ Browns -2.5 O/U: 43

The Steelers defense has been playing out of their minds recently. The Browns can be a dangerous team but their offensive line has been an issue all season. I worry about Mason Rudolph in this matchup. He hasn’t sold me yet as a quarterback you can rely on. I think the Steelers defense should be able to make a few plays here and James Conner should have a solid game behind that solid Pittsburgh offensive line. I like the Steelers to snatch a victory on the road in a relatively low scoring matchup. Steelers 23 Browns 20

November 17th (Sunday)

Falcons @ Panthers -4.5 O/U: 49

The Falcons are coming off a game no one expected them to win. Not only did they win, they won comfortably. It was an odd game but the Falcons defense seemed to have found some footing against a familiar foe. It’s hard to justify picking a 2-7 team to win on the road, so I like the Panthers, who impressed me last week in a close road loss at a snowy Lambeau Field. I like the matchup for Kyle Allen this week and think Christian McCaffrey should have a big day. Panthers 29 Falcons 23

Bills -6.5 @ Dolphins O/U: 41

The Bills defense hasn’t been very good lately and they’ve now lost two in a row. Conversely, the Dolphins are on a two-game winning streak and are fresh off a victory against the Colts in what was an unexpected road victory over a Colts team missing their starting quarterback. I like Buffalo here, regardless. They match up well against the Dolphins because the Bills rush defense has been their biggest issue and the Dolphins can’t exactly run the ball. The Bills pass defense should be able to force a turnover or two and Devin Singletary has emerged as a valuable option rushing out of the Bills backfield. I like the matchup more for the Bills but I’m not convinced this will be a blowout by any means Bills 28 Dolphins 17

Cowboys NA @ Lions O/U: NA

I’m going Dallas here. This is a simple pick for me. Matt Stafford shouldn’t be playing in this game and the Detroit rush defense isn’t very good. Jeff Driskell is not going to do anything against this Dallas. There’s not a whole lot of analysis that needs to go into this. This should be a coasting game for Dallas. I expect a huge win on Sunday. The Lions have no rushing game and Dallas has been suspect at times to solid rush games and play action, but the Lions don’t fit the profile, so they’re in for a safe game. Cowboys 34 Lions 13

Broncos @ Vikings -10 O/U: 40

The Broncos played a very safe game script in their Week 9 game against the Browns. First time starter Brandon Allen only attempted 20 passes but was relatively effective with 193 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. The Vikings defense hasn’t been as impressive as it was earlier in the year, but I’m leaning on the certainty that the Vikings will stack the box and force Allen to beat them through the air. I also like the Vikings extremely balanced offensive attack. What I don’t like here is the spread. The Broncos have been a steady defense all season, so I just can’t see this game getting too far away from them. I think the Vikings will win but they’ll fail to cover the spread. Vikings 24 Broncos 17

Texans @ Ravens -4 O/U: 51.5

The Texans defense is awful. Lamar Jackson has evolved into a Swiss Army Knife who can beat you in a number of fun ways. I don’t expect much offensive stalling in the game from Baltimore’s perspective, but I can see the Texans having issues with Baltimore’s pass rush. A lot of this game will be on Deshaun Watson’s ability to escape the pocket and make plays downfield. I like the Ravens here and I’ll cite the matchup between the Ravens and the Seahawks as a prototype. In that matchup, the Ravens caused enough issues for Wilson with blitzes to stymie his effectiveness and really hamper his performance overall. The Seahawks were essentially run out of town in the game and I can see the same thing happening late in this matchup on Sunday, based on the heath (Jimmy Smith’s return) of the Baltimore secondary and the effectiveness of their pass rush. This should be a very entertaining game, but I like the Ravens to win and cover. Ravens 34 Texans 24

Jaguars @ Colts -2.5 O/U: 43.5

The Colts are coming off an embarrassing home loss against the Dolphins. This week, they’ll have their hands full with a Jaguars team who will be featuring their Week 1 starting quarterback, Nick Foles. The Colts have been relatively fine on defense this season, but anytime you’re playing a team with a quarterback you have no tape on (In this offense), it presents you with a number of challenges in game prep. Regardless, Frank Reich is a solid tactician and knows Nick Foles well, due to his time as Foles’ Offensive Coordinator in the Super Bowl run from a few years ago. I think this game might start out slow as Colts quarterback, Jacoby Brissett, is also returning from injury. I expect a lot of balance from both these offenses but ultimately, I like the Colts to bounce back, following their unfortunate collapse against the Dolphins a week ago. Colts 23 Jaguars 20

Saints -5.5 @ Bucs O/U: 50

The Saints are coming off a quizzical collapse last week at home against the previously 1-7 Falcons. The Falcons defense was an absolute joke for the entire season, yet they shut out Drew Brees and left New Orleans riding high after a sound thumping. This week’s matchup, on paper, looks just as appealing for the Saints. Make no mistake about it, the Bucs should put up a strong fight, as they have for most of the season, but will the Saints be able to get back on track following such an embarrassing home loss last week? I think the Saints defense comes up big in this game and the Saints offense finds easy ways to move the ball. Kamara, now seemingly healthy, should see a good bulk amount of the work. It just makes sense for the Saints here to bounce back in a big way after last week. Saints 31 Bucs 24

Jets @ Redskins -2.5 O/U: 38.5

This game isn’t going to be worth watching. The Redskins and Jets have better defenses than anyone thinks, but the Jets pass defense is still bad. Luckily, the Jets are playing against Dwayne Haskins, who has looked equally bad in his time under center so far this season. The Jets offensive line is really banged up, which would explain why the Jets haven’t been able to run block or pass block well at all lately. Conversely, the Redskins haven’t been very efficient on the ground and it just so happens, the Jets actually have a very strong rush defense. If the Redskins are hoping to win this game, it’s going to have to be on Dwayne Haskins’ shoulder and I just see no scenario where that happens. Jets 20 Redskins 17

Cardinals @ 49ers -9.5 O/U: 45

The Cardinals really are playing much better football lately. Just two weeks ago, they controlled a good portion of the game against the 49ers. Last week, their defense came crashing back down to earth as they collapsed late in a loss against the Bucs. The 49ers haven’t looked as strong lately and will likely be without Matt Breida, Joe Staley, George Kittle, and possibly Tevin Coleman this week. It’s not lining up to be a good matchup for the 49ers this week. I think the Cardinals should be able to keep this game barely close enough to cover. 49ers 24 Cardinals 20

Bengals @ Raiders -11.5 O/U: 48.5

I like the Raiders for many reasons this week. One big reason is the Bengals. It’s not complicated here. The Bengals have allowed 200+ yards rushing yards to teams four times this year. The Bengals are also starting a rookie quarterback behind an offensive line that seems incapable of blocking. The Raiders are going to run all over the Bengals this week and there’s little to nothing the Bengals will be able to do to keep pace with such a bad offensive line and such an inexperienced quarterback. Raiders 34 Bengals 13

Patriots -3.5 @ Eagles O/U: 45

Fletcher Cox will be back for the Eagles this week but that’s about the only good news for the Eagles. I expect Julian Edelman and Mohammed Sanu to get plenty of targets and also plenty of success against this Eagles secondary. On the other side of the ball, the Eagles will likely be without Alshon Jeffrey and Jordan Howard, so a team missing weapons, facing the best defense in the NFL isn’t the kind of scenario I’m liking if I’m an Eagles fan. This game shouldn’t get too ugly, but it also probably won’t stay too close. Patriots 27 Eagles 20

Bears @ Rams -6 O/U: 39.5

What an awful Sunday night game this should be. Before the season began, this looked like a very interesting matchup for playoff implication reasons. Now, both teams are struggling to jockey for a playoff spot and neither has a quarterback they can feel very confident in. Khalil Mack is going to terrorize this Rams offensive line and Aaron Donald should do the same to the Bears. This game should be decided on the ground and has all the ingredients for a low-scoring game. I expect the Rams should pull out the win, but I don’t think they’ll have the ammo to cover this line. Rams 20 Bears 17

November 18th (Monday night)

Chiefs -4 @ Chargers O/U: 52

This should be a fun game to end the week with. Last season, the Chargers avenged their opening season loss against the Chiefs by travelling to Arrowhead and knocking off the Chiefs in an exciting prime time game. This season, the Chiefs defense is slightly better than last season. The Chiefs also have a fully healthy Pat Mahomes. The Chargers have regressed badly since last season. The team can’t move the ball very well anymore since their line hasn’t been able to stay healthy. Philip Rivers hasn’t looked the same throwing the ball for weeks now, and the defense is missing key pieces. I think the Chiefs will cruise in this one. Chiefs 31 Chargers 23


Author: Collin Hulbert